The crypto market faces a significant and predictable supply increase, with an estimated $55 billion worth of tokens from top projects set to unlock over the next two years. This influx of supply is a primary driver of sell pressure, as historical data shows 90% of unlock events lead to a price drop.
Crypto's over-the-counter (OTC) secondary market is fragmented, relationship-driven, and lacks centralized pricing. This allows sophisticated players to acquire locked tokens from VCs and foundations at a 20-40% discount to the public spot price.
Many DeFi protocols attract Total Value Locked (TVL) by issuing their native governance tokens as rewards. However, this is often a 'fake' incentive, as an estimated 80% of these reward tokens are immediately sold by users, creating constant sell pressure and demonstrating a lack of genuine product-market fit.
Historically, complex arbitrage strategies like OTC secondary market trades were exclusive to hedge funds and market makers with deep relationships and infrastructure. Protocols like Neutral are now tokenizing access to these strategies, allowing a broader base of users to earn yield from real trading activity.
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