The conflict with Iran has expended a significant portion of the U.S. inventory of high-end, long-range missiles originally intended for a peer conflict in the Pacific. This has left Indo-Pacific Command without the necessary war stocks for its contingency plans, creating a critical gap in U.S. deterrence and warfighting capability against China.
For years, the U.S. operated on 'minimal sustaining rates' for munitions production, failing to build adequate stockpiles. Ramping up production is a slow process, as defense contractors require long-term, multi-year procurement commitments to invest in expanding capacity, meaning it will take an estimated 6+ years just to return to previous low inventory levels.
A vast array of U.S. precision weapons, from Excalibur artillery shells to JASSM and LRASM missiles, rely heavily on GPS for guidance. As demonstrated in Ukraine, these systems are easily defeated by Russian electronic warfare, rendering them ineffective and highlighting a critical flaw in the U.S. military's technological overmatch strategy.
The public discussion about munitions shortages is driven by Pentagon officials leaking information to the press as a strategy to gain the President's attention and lobby Congress for funding. While a time-honored tradition in Washington, this public signaling of weakness to adversaries like China erodes deterrence and exposes critical vulnerabilities.
The U.S. has been using its most advanced and scarce weapons against secondary threats. For example, employing LRASMs, designed specifically to counter the Chinese Navy, against the far less sophisticated Iranian Navy is a strategic miscalculation that wastes irreplaceable assets and exacerbates the stockpile crisis.
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