Keep pulling the thread on United States.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) provided sanctions relief to Iran that unlocked its oil, banking, and trade sectors, and included a $1.2 billion settlement.
Chris Kennedy asserts that Iran has greater leverage in current negotiations than it did in 2015 because it has demonstrated the ability to control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt global energy supplies.
According to Chris Kennedy, Iran's missile and drone programs are outside the scope of the proposed agreement, meaning Iran will retain the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Israeli forces have conducted their largest incursion into Lebanon in several decades.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) required Iran to ship its excess low-enriched uranium out of the country or blend it down, resulting in approximately 25,000 pounds of uranium leaving Iran.
The initial U.S. demand at the start of the conflict was that all of Iran's existing enriched uranium be transferred or destroyed.
The current proposed memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran only states that Iran will agree to negotiate over the disposition of its existing enriched uranium stockpile.
Under the currently proposed memorandum of understanding (MOU), the United States commits only to discuss sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets with Iran.
Chris Kennedy predicts that there is a high likelihood that the current negotiations with Iran will fail or become a recurring issue, partly because Iran is untrusting of the process and takes President Trump's public statements seriously.
Chris Kennedy predicts that even with a ceasefire, empty oil tankers will be reluctant to return to the Persian Gulf for fear of being trapped again.
Jeff Mason characterizes Israel as a 'junior partner' to the U.S. in the conflict with Iran, but notes that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has his own independent agenda.
Jeff Mason asserts that President Trump has not publicly explained how a new agreement would enforce or monitor Iran's commitment not to build a nuclear weapon, a key component of the original JCPOA.