Keep pulling the thread on Ian Berryman.
In BloombergNEF's Economic Transition Scenario, global demand for natural gas is projected to grow by approximately 29% from today to 2050.
In BloombergNEF's Economic Transition Scenario, global oil demand is projected to peak around 2029 and then enter a structural decline.
In BloombergNEF's Net-Zero Scenario, natural gas demand is projected to peak around 2029 and then decline by approximately 3% per year, falling to 44% below today's levels by 2050.
The 2024 BloombergNEF Net-Zero Scenario (NZS) now corresponds to 1.81 degrees Celsius of warming with a 67% likelihood, an increase from the 1.75 degrees in the previous version.
BNEF's modeling identified that unconstrained regional power system buildouts would collectively exceed the global supply chain's capacity to manufacture and install gas turbines.
The primary bottleneck for meeting the power demand of AI data centers is the ability to build out grid infrastructure and connect new generation, rather than the availability of chips.
The projected structural decline in global oil demand is primarily driven by the electrification of transport and the adoption of electric vehicles.
BloombergNEF's Economic Transition Scenario projects the global power system will grow in size by 29% by 2035 and 69% by 2050 compared to today.
Large technology companies have the financial resources and track record to secure a majority of the limited global supply of new gas turbines for their data centers.
The rapid growth in power demand from data centers is compelling governments and system operators to address challenges in connecting new electricity supply and demand more quickly.
Approximately three-quarters of the world's population lives in countries that are net importers of energy.
For countries like Japan, Vietnam, and India, fossil fuel imports currently represent between 4% and 6% of their GDP.