Keep pulling the thread on Alex Sacerdote.
The enterprise application AI market is currently less than 1% penetrated.
The foundation model market has consolidated into a three-horse race oligopoly, similar to the cloud market's evolution.
The total addressable market for AI coding tools is estimated to be half a trillion dollars, based on 20 million coders worldwide.
Andrej Karpathy's view on AI coding tools has flipped; he now writes code almost exclusively in English, whereas he previously estimated that 80% of code was handwritten.
Alex Sacerdote predicts that the penetration of AI among knowledge workers will increase from 10 basis points to between 5% and 15% in the next four years.
Anthropic currently has access to only half of the compute capacity it needs.
Marc Andreessen is certain that there will not be enough compute capacity to meet demand over the next four years.
In April 2020, Whale Rock Capital Management acquired a $100 million block of Stripe stock at a $35 billion valuation.
Whale Rock Capital Management has almost completely sold its positions in application software companies and was net short the sector entering the current year.
The priority for CIOs to invest in traditional software has significantly decreased as they shift spending to AI tokens from companies like Anthropic, which offer a faster ROI.
AI workloads are growing 10 times every year, driving a "decommoditization" of the hardware industry.
The supply of key hardware components like DRAM, NAND, and PCBs is currently 30% short of demand.