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The current inflation is a result of the economy overheating, driven by significant, price-insensitive demand from hyperscalers for chip-related products that is outstripping supply.
Amrita Sen predicts that oil prices will be much higher in the future.
Oil prices have not surged despite a production loss of over 12 million barrels per day because the market is drawing down a buffer of 400 million barrels of commercial stocks and 400 million barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) oil.
Energy Aspects forecasts that global oil inventories will reach critical levels between July and August.
It is expected to take three to five months, or potentially longer, for Middle Eastern oil production to fully recover after the current conflict ends due to significant infrastructure damage.
The United States is avoiding direct military action against Iran because Iran's IRGC has demonstrated asymmetric capabilities to damage critical infrastructure throughout the region.
Estimates for S&P 500 calendar year 2026 earnings have increased from the teens to 25% since the start of the Q1 reporting season.
The Federal Reserve has operated as a "de facto dictatorship of the chair" for the past 50 years, in contrast to the Bank of England's "one person, one vote" model.
David Sief of Nomura believes Fed Governor Warsh is likely the most dovish member of the 19-person Federal Open Market Committee.
Nomura forecasts that the upcoming Federal Reserve dot plot will likely show several members projecting one or two interest rate cuts for the current year.
Nomura forecasts a 0.2% increase in the upcoming core inflation print, with a higher probability of a 0.1% reading than a 0.3% reading.
Nomura expects the year-over-year Core PCE inflation rate for May to rise to 3.4%, up from the current 3.3%.