The aerospace industry, particularly incumbents like Boeing, has seen a dramatic slowdown in innovation over the past several decades, with no new major airplane designs in over 20 years. This is attributed to a shift from founder-led, commercially-driven progress to a more bureaucratic, quarterly-focused management style that avoids long-term, capital-intensive risks.
The Concorde is framed as a cautionary tale of a government prestige project that was technologically impressive but economically disastrous. Its high ticket prices, small capacity, and lack of a viable business model led to its demise and convinced the world that supersonic travel was not feasible.
The core thesis rests on the lopsided economics of international air travel, where business class seats generate 80% of profits. Boom's Overture jet is designed to capture this lucrative market by offering a 2x speed increase at a price point comparable to today's business class, a market incumbents are hesitant to disrupt for fear of cannibalizing their own profits.
The 1973 US government ban on overland supersonic flight is identified as a critical regulatory barrier that killed the market for a minimum viable supersonic jet (e.g., a private coast-to-coast jet). This regulation, ostensibly for noise concerns, is argued to have been protectionist and a major contributor to the lack of progress.
The conversation extends beyond commercial aviation to the broader decline of the US industrial base and the urgent need for its revitalization. The rise of China as a strategic competitor in aerospace and the vulnerability of US military supply chains highlight the national security implications of losing manufacturing and technological leadership.
Keep pulling the thread on Blake Scholl.