Keep pulling the thread on Mark Zandi.
Mark Zandi asserts that the U.S. economy is vulnerable because consumer spending is highly dependent on the performance of the equity market, which primarily benefits wealthy households.
Mark Zandi estimates that the top 20% of U.S. income earners, defined as those making over $175,000 annually, now account for 60% of personal outlays, an increase from 50% in the early 1990s.
Mark Zandi reports that based on Equifax data through May, the delinquency rate for subprime borrowers in the U.S. (defined as a credit score below 660) is now over 10%, the highest level since 2014.
Mark Zandi argues that the Federal Reserve should maintain its current policy stance due to conflicting economic signals, with a weak labor market suggesting rate cuts and high inflation suggesting rate increases.
The U.S. income, wealth, and consumption distributions have become more skewed, particularly due to the recent run-up in the equity market.
Mark Zandi states that the bottom two-thirds of the American population own very little, if any, stock.
Mark Zandi states that for the typical American in the middle of the income distribution, real after-tax income has been stagnant over the past year.
Mark Zandi asserts that real after-tax income for the bottom half of the U.S. income distribution is likely falling at present.
Andrew Sacher's analysis of retailers, including Dollar General and Lululemon, using a Bloomberg function shows that revenue growth over the last few years has been roughly the same across low-end, mid-range, and high-end segments.
An analysis by the Bloomberg U.S. economics team concluded that the financial benefit of recent tax refunds for consumers was completely offset by the rise in gas prices following the Iran crisis.
Mark Zandi assesses that current U.S. inflation and inflation expectations are high by historical standards and are at risk of breaking out to the upside soon.
Mark Zandi estimates the U.S. economy is currently growing at or slightly below 2%, which he considers to be below its potential growth rate.