Keep pulling the thread on Yara Vöningen.
Global heat pump sales fell in 2025 for the first time in a decade.
Japan, China, and the US are the world's largest markets for heat pump sales.
Europe is the region with the fastest growth in heat pump installations for the purpose of displacing fossil fuels.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, wholesale gas prices in Europe increased approximately 12-fold year-on-year in 2022.
The 2022 spike in wholesale gas prices resulted in a tripling of household gas bills across Europe.
European heat pump sales surged by 65% year-on-year in 2022, reaching a total of 3 million units.
A retail electricity-to-gas price ratio above 3 significantly hinders the uptake of heat pumps.
China sells approximately 3.5 million heat pumps per year, a volume comparable to the entire European market.
In the late 2010s and early 2020s, the Chinese government offered subsidies covering over 100% of upfront costs to incentivize households to replace coal boilers with heat pumps for air quality reasons.
The policy momentum from federal-level subsidies for heat pumps under the Inflation Reduction Act has largely dissipated under the current US administration.
Bloomberg NEF's economic transition scenario forecasts that global heat pump sales will increase from 15 million units today to approximately 20 million units by 2036.
The primary tipping point for mass adoption of heat pumps will be a sustained shift in the electricity-to-fossil fuel price ratio that makes them clearly economical for households.