The exclusion of Tigray and other regions from the election undermines national reconciliation and government legitimacy.
Ethiopia's ambition for sea access could provoke a new and highly destabilizing regional conflict.
Deepening involvement in regional proxy wars, such as in Sudan, risks escalating tensions with neighboring powers like Egypt.
The lack of credible international election observation signals a potential erosion of democratic accountability.
Opportunities Identified
Successful debt restructuring under the G20 Common Framework could unlock significant economic potential and improve fiscal health.
Renewed financial support from the IMF and other international partners provides capital for critical development and reform projects.
Ethiopia's strategic importance as a regional anchor ensures continued engagement from major powers like the US, providing a backstop against state failure.
Economic reforms, including in the banking sector and digitalization, could improve the business environment and attract investment.