Keep pulling the thread on Torsten Slok.
The ongoing AI boom in the US is independent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy.
Approximately 3,000 new data centers are either announced or currently under construction in the United States.
AI-related companies now account for 87% of all venture capital investment.
Torsten Slok calculates that productivity gains from AI will add approximately 1 percentage point to US GDP growth in 2026.
Over the next 6 months, more than $100 billion in consumer spending is expected in the US due to increased tax refunds.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, recent fiscal stimulus will boost US GDP by approximately 1 percentage point.
The consensus forecast predicts US inflation will rise from 2.7% to a peak of 3.7% before gradually declining to the Federal Reserve's 2% target by mid-2027.
The 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 now constitute 39% of the index's total market capitalization.
Hyperscalers account for 49% of year-to-date issuance in the US investment-grade credit market, driven by their need to finance data centers.
Torsten Slok proposes a new '60/40' portfolio construction where investors should balance their exposure between AI and non-AI assets rather than traditional stocks and bonds.
Due to tailwinds from data center growth, industrial renaissance, and fiscal stimulus, US economic growth is at risk of accelerating for the remainder of the year.
A continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause US inflation to be even higher than current forecasts.