Keep pulling the thread on Larry Mcdonald.
The upcoming IPOs for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, combined with secondary offerings, will require hundreds of billions in immediate capital and unlock trillions in insider shares within a year. This massive supply is forcing institutions to sell liquid large-cap tech stocks to raise cash, creating significant downward pressure on the market.
The combination of sticky inflation, geopolitical turmoil, and overextended tech valuations is setting the stage for a significant capital shift. The forecast is for a rotation out of financial assets like tech stocks and bonds and into real assets like energy, materials, and precious metals.
Beyond the crowded semiconductor trade, the long-term value from the AI boom may lie in non-obvious beneficiaries. This includes companies with unique, proprietary datasets (e.g., Intuitive Surgical in healthcare) and those providing essential infrastructure like cheap power for data centers (e.g., Tourmaline Oil).
The analysis posits that the dominance of passive index investing has created a structural vulnerability. VCs and insiders are bringing companies public at much later stages and at massive valuations, effectively using index inclusion as a mechanism to sell to retail and passive investors at the top.