how is spacex doing? is it overpriced as of now? what is its stock value now

Following a record-setting $75 billion IPO in June 2026, SpaceX's stock has experienced significant volatility [2, 6]. The company went public at $135 per share, valuing it at approximately $1.8 trillion, though one source places the valuation at IPO closer to $2.1 trillion [8, 9, 15]. The stock saw immediate investor demand, opening for trading at $150, an 11% increase, and closing its first day at approximately $161 per share [13, 16, 22, 30]. The surge continued briefly, with the stock price peaking at $201.80 just days after the IPO . However, this momentum has reversed sharply. As of mid-July 2026, the stock has **dropped 40% from its peak**, an event that erased more than $1 trillion in market value [1, 3, 4]. The stock fell below its IPO price for the first time on July 15, 2026, hitting an all-time low of $132.75 [7, 28].

The company's massive valuation is predicated on a strategic pivot from a space and launch provider to an enterprise AI powerhouse [2, 6, 14]. This narrative targets a **$28.5 trillion** total addressable market, primarily in AI software, and is supported by near-term compute contracts with major tech firms [2, 6]. This future-focused investment thesis is reflected in its high valuation multiples, which were cited as over 90x sales and as high as 112x the previous year's sales at the time of the IPO [6, 9]. More recently, the company was trading at 100 times its previous year's revenue [11, 23]. This valuation is considered highly speculative, as the company is not currently profitable and is being valued on projected sales [12, 17]. Skepticism exists, with one pre-IPO valuation placing the company's worth at just $62 per share . Furthermore, Morningstar's analysis assigns only a **7% probability** to its bull case scenario, which would value the stock in the $130 to $160 range, suggesting current prices reflect a highly optimistic outlook .

The entirety of SpaceX's long-term strategy, encompassing both its AI ambitions and its space economy vision, is critically dependent on a single technological hurdle: the successful and regular reusability of its Starship launch system [2, 6, 12, 14]. This dependency is a recurring point of concern, as the technology remains unproven despite numerous test flights . While the company holds a de facto monopoly on U.S. heavy-lift launch and astronaut transport with the U.S. government as a key customer, its valuation hinges on this next-generation capability . The IPO process itself was noted as being unconventionally structured, with terms dictated by Elon Musk, bypassing traditional price discovery [6, 14]. This has fueled speculation about a potential future merger between Tesla and SpaceX, which would consolidate Musk's control through SpaceX's favorable stock structure [2, 14].