What are experts saying on what the next 2–5 years of GLP-1s and obesity drugs mean for med-tech, devices, and hospital volumes?

The widespread adoption of GLP-1 agonists presents a complex and uncertain outlook for medical device procedure volumes and hospital utilization over the next five years. While the rise of these drugs, particularly newer oral formulations, has renewed concerns that they could reduce demand for bariatric, orthopedic, and cardiovascular procedures, current data presents a conflicting narrative . Evidence from 2024 and 2025 indicates that procedure volumes for major device companies like Medtronic remained steady or even grew, suggesting that the feared cannibalization has not yet materialized on a large scale . This tension between forward-looking concerns and observed historical data remains the central uncertainty for the med-tech sector, as the long-term effects of a medically managed obese population on surgical rates are still unknown.

The potential for disruption is driven by the sheer scale and velocity of the GLP-1 market, which experts believe is still being underestimated . The market's growth has propelled Eli Lilly to a trillion-dollar valuation and is fueling multi-billion dollar acquisitions and intense R&D competition [2, 19, 22]. Adoption is expected to accelerate significantly, with one prediction suggesting that **more than half of Americans** will be taking GLP-1 drugs within five years . This rapid uptake is supported by a shift toward more convenient oral maintenance therapies, with new approvals expected as early as Q1 2026, which could improve long-term adherence and broaden the patient base [2, 21, 28]. The expansion of coverage, potentially influenced by Medicare's payment models, will also be a critical factor in realizing these high adoption forecasts .

While GLP-1s may reduce demand in some areas, they are simultaneously creating new markets for complementary therapies and expanding into new indications. A primary concern with current GLP-1s is the significant loss of muscle mass that accompanies weight loss, creating a major market opportunity for drugs that can preserve or build muscle [3, 18]. Pharmaceutical companies are actively developing therapies like myostatin inhibitors to address this, though they face significant regulatory hurdles, as the FDA is expected to require proof of improved absolute strength and function, not just changes in body composition [7, 20]. Furthermore, the therapeutic platform is expanding beyond weight loss, with **almost a fifth of obesity treatments** in development also being investigated for the fatty liver disease MASH [14, 16, 8]. This suggests a future where GLP-1s and adjacent therapies treat a spectrum of metabolic diseases, potentially shifting but not simply eliminating demand for healthcare services and creating new avenues for pharmaceutical and diagnostic innovation [4, 17].