The global economy is undergoing a structural shift to 'modern mercantilism,' driven by US-China competition, which will lead to persistently higher U.S. inflation of around 3%.
The AI industry has entered a 'resource grab' phase, where competition for a limited supply of chips (NVIDIA), power, land (Microsoft), and top scientists is the primary dynamic.
Major technology companies have transformed from net capital providers to massive capital spenders on AI infrastructure, fundamentally altering capital market dynamics.
China views competing with the U.S. in AI as an 'existential' necessity, forcing it to support its private sector and equity markets to fund the effort.
U.S. equities are over-concentrated and have recently underperformed global peers, while the U.K. faces a Brazil-like risk profile due to its expansionary fiscal policies.
▶The AI Resource GrabApr 2026
Jensen argues the current AI era is defined by a fierce competition for scarce resources. This includes a limited supply of cutting-edge chips from NVIDIA, land with power grid access being acquired by Microsoft, and a talent pool of fewer than 1,000 top scientists.
This framework suggests that the primary moat in AI is not just model performance but control over the physical and human supply chain, making infrastructure and talent retention key indicators of long-term success.
▶The Rise of Modern MercantilismApr 2026
Jensen posits a major geopolitical and economic shift away from globalization towards 'modern mercantilism,' primarily as a reaction to China's rise. This new paradigm involves more nationalistic industrial policies and is expected to keep U.S. inflation structurally higher, around 3%.
Investors should anticipate sustained inflationary pressures and geopolitical friction impacting currency and equity markets, rather than a return to the pre-2020 low-inflation environment.
▶Shifting Capital TidesApr 2026
Jensen highlights a fundamental change in capital flows where tech giants like Microsoft and Google have transitioned from being net capital providers to massive net spenders due to AI capex. This, combined with unprecedented capital concentration in U.S. markets, creates a fragile and risky environment for investors.
The traditional role of big tech as a source of market liquidity and buybacks is reversing, potentially increasing market volatility and the cost of capital for other sectors.
▶Bridgewater's 'Artificial Investor'Apr 2026
Jensen details Bridgewater's strategic initiative, started in March 2022, to build an AI-driven 'artificial investor.' By 2024, this system was deemed capable of generating alpha and is being used with clients, housed in a separate unit to foster a unique culture and manage security risks.
This represents a significant move by a major hedge fund to systematize investment decisions beyond traditional quant models, indicating that the future of asset management may involve AI agents operating with a high degree of autonomy.