Jan Hatzius

Chief Economist and Head of Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs

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Appeared in

Discussed in

Key positions and views

Maintains a consistently bullish and above-consensus forecast for U.S. GDP growth, projecting 2.5% in 2025 and 2.6% in 2026.

Believes the U.S. economy's long-term potential growth rate is 2.2%, significantly higher than the Fed's 1.8% estimate, due to an anticipated AI-driven productivity boom.

Expects significant increases in U.S. tariffs, particularly a 20 percentage point hike on Chinese goods, and incorporates this as a key driver of inflation in his baseline forecast.

Forecasts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice in 2026 to a neutral policy rate of 3-3.25%, a level below what markets are currently pricing.

Argues that strong GDP growth can coexist with flat unemployment due to accelerating productivity, preventing the economy from overheating.

Podcast consensus on Hatzius

Points of consensus

▶Across both podcast appearances, Hatzius consistently presents an optimistic, above-consensus forecast for U.S. GDP growth, citing figures of 2.5% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026.Apr 2026

▶He consistently incorporates the expected productivity boost from Artificial Intelligence as a key driver for raising long-term potential U.S. growth estimates, moving the target for ~2030 from 1.8% to 2.2%.Apr 2026

▶In both discussions, he identifies potential U.S. tariff policy, particularly on Chinese goods, as a primary source of policy uncertainty and a significant contributor to inflation forecasts.Apr 2026

▶His analysis consistently points to an acceleration in U.S. trend productivity growth post-pandemic, rising from 1.5% in the prior cycle to approximately 2% in the last five years.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Hatzius's forecast for U.S. GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025 is more than half a percentage point higher than the Bloomberg consensus.Apr 2026

▶His firm's long-term potential U.S. GDP growth forecast of 2.1-2.2% is notably higher than the Federal Reserve's median estimate of 1.8%.Apr 2026

▶He predicts the terminal Federal Funds Rate will settle in the low to mid-three percent range, a level below what financial markets were pricing at the time of the claim.Apr 2026

▶His forecast for Euro area GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 is substantially more pessimistic, running 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points below the consensus from both Bloomberg and the European Central Bank.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶U.S. Economic ExceptionalismApr 2026

Hatzius consistently presents a bullish outlook on the U.S. economy that diverges from consensus. He forecasts significantly higher GDP growth for the U.S. compared to both market expectations and other developed economies like the Euro area, attributing this strength to superior productivity trends.

Analysts should consider that investment theses based on Goldman Sachs's macro views would likely favor U.S. assets over European ones and be positioned for a stronger-than-expected economic environment.

▶The AI-Driven Productivity BoomApr 2026

A core tenet of Hatzius's optimistic long-term view is the transformative impact of AI on productivity. He argues that AI's contribution will accelerate, justifying a significant upgrade to the U.S.'s potential growth rate, even while acknowledging its currently minimal measured impact on GDP is due to accounting for imported and intermediate goods.

This theme suggests a focus on long-term structural growth drivers over cyclical concerns, implying that productivity gains could allow for strong growth without triggering runaway inflation.

▶Policy Uncertainty as a Primary HeadwindApr 2026

Despite fundamental economic optimism, Hatzius identifies government policy as the main risk factor, with a particular focus on tariffs. He explicitly builds significant tariff hikes on Chinese and other goods into his baseline forecasts, viewing them as a key driver of inflation and a primary concern for the investment community.

This highlights a disconnect between the underlying economy's strength and the risks posed by political outcomes, making geopolitical analysis crucial for accurately interpreting economic forecasts.

▶Monetary Policy NormalizationApr 2026

Hatzius forecasts a clear path for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates toward a neutral level. He anticipates rate cuts in 2026 to bring the policy rate to a 3-3.25% range, suggesting a view that the peak of the inflationary battle is over and policy can normalize without derailing growth.

This view implies that the Federal Reserve can achieve a 'soft landing' and that current market pricing may be too hawkish regarding the long-term path of interest rates.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Post-COVID (5-year trend)

Identifies an acceleration in underlying U.S. trend productivity growth to 2%, up from 1.5% in the prior cycle.

Late 2023

Notes that the annual rate of immigrant inflow to the U.S. peaked at over 3 million.

Current (at time of podcast)

Observes that immigrant inflow has decelerated to a rate between 1.5 and 2 million annually.

Forecast 2025

Projects a bullish 2.5% U.S. GDP growth and 2.4% core inflation, attributing 50 basis points of that inflation to tariffs. The investment community's focus is said to have shifted to policy uncertainty, particularly tariffs.

Forecast 2026

Forecasts continued strong U.S. GDP growth at 2.6% with flat unemployment at 4% due to productivity gains. Expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice, in March and June.

Forecast ~2030

Articulates a revised long-term potential U.S. growth estimate of 2.2%, raised from 1.8%, based on the expected productivity impact of AI.

Suggested prompts

How does Jan Hatzius reconcile his forecast for strong GDP growth with flat unemployment in 2026, and what does this imply about the labor share of income? &nearr;What are the primary drivers behind Goldman Sachs's decision to raise its long-term potential U.S. growth estimate, and how does this contrast with the Federal Reserve's view? &nearr;How does Hatzius quantify the inflationary impact of anticipated tariffs, and what are the potential second-order effects on Federal Reserve policy decisions? &nearr;What specific mechanisms does Hatzius believe will translate AI investment into the significant, economy-wide productivity gains that his forecasts depend on? &nearr;

Key concepts

U.S. GDP Growth 2 ep Productivity 2 ep Tariffs 2 ep Artificial Intelligence (AI) 2 ep Federal Reserve Policy 2 ep Inflation 2 ep Labor Market & Unemployment 1 ep European Economy 1 ep Government Deficit & Policy 2 ep

Notable quotes

“I mean, we're pretty optimistic on the U.S. growth outlook for 2025, where, you know, two and a half percent, again, half a percentage point or a little more above the current Bloomberg consensus.”

Jan Hatzius · Goldman's Hatzius and Kostin on Markets and Macro in 2025 | Odd Lots

“And a little over a year ago, we raised our long-term potential growth estimate for the U.S. by four-tenths of a percentage point. We were at 1.8% for the sort of years around 2030. We're now at 2.2%, which is, you know, that's a pretty sizable boost.”

Jan Hatzius · Goldman's Hatzius and Kostin on Markets and Macro in 2025 | Odd Lots

“I mean, we do expect a significant increase in China tariffs, and we're building in about a 20 percentage point increase in the average rate on U.S. imports from China.”

Jan Hatzius · Goldman's Hatzius and Kostin on Markets and Macro in 2025 | Odd Lots

“two more in 2026 that bring you down to what we think is roughly their neutral estimate, three to three and a quarter percent. We're penciling that in for March and June at the moment.”

Jan Hatzius · Goldman's Hatzius and Snider on the Outlook for 2026 | Odd Lots

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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