Afshon Ostovar

Analyst and expert on Iranian military capabilities and geopolitics.

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Appeared in

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Key positions and views

Iran's conventional military and nuclear deterrent capabilities have been effectively destroyed by recent Israeli and U.S. military actions.

The Iranian regime, having fundamentally miscalculated its strategic position, is expected to pivot towards severe internal repression to maintain its grip on power.

Iran's network of regional proxies, particularly Hezbollah and Gaza-based militants, has been militarily 'eviscerated' and can no longer project significant power on behalf of Tehran.

It is highly improbable that Iran could secretly restart its nuclear program due to the comprehensive penetration of the country by Israeli intelligence.

While Iran's external power has been crippled, its internal security apparatus remains strong and unaffected by recent military setbacks.

Podcast consensus on Ostovar

Points of consensus

▶All provided claims consistently portray Afshon Ostovar's view that Iran's military capabilities, including its missile stockpiles, air defenses, and nuclear program, have been severely degraded in recent conflicts.Apr 2026

▶Ostovar consistently argues that Iran's regional proxies, specifically Hezbollah and militant groups in Gaza, have had their military capacity 'eviscerated' and are no longer a significant threat.Apr 2026

▶A recurring point in Ostovar's analysis is that Iran has lost its military deterrent capability against adversaries like Israel and the U.S.Apr 2026

▶Ostovar repeatedly emphasizes the central role of the IRGC in controlling Iran's military programs (missiles, drones) and its external operations via the Quds Force.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Ostovar presents a potential contradiction by stating that while Iran's ability to project power externally has been degraded, its internal security apparatus remains strong, a point that could be debated regarding the long-term stability of a regime that loses its external leverage.Apr 2026

▶He claims Iran's nuclear program may be 'effectively done' as a deterrent, yet also warns that threats to withdraw from the NPT could provoke a preemptive strike, suggesting the program still holds significant strategic weight for adversaries.Apr 2026

▶Ostovar asserts that Iran's regional influence is maintained through proxy 'mafias' incapable of governance, a characterization that might be contested by those who see these groups as having genuine political and social roles in their respective countries.Apr 2026

▶The assessment that Iran was at the 'apex of its regional power' just one year ago contrasts sharply with the current depiction of its 'eviscerated' capabilities, raising questions about the speed and totality of this collapse.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Collapse of Iranian Military DeterrenceApr 2026

Ostovar argues that recent conflicts have systematically dismantled Iran's military power. He claims its air defenses are gone, missile stockpiles are depleted, its nuclear program is set back years, and its ability to operate in Syria is nullified, leaving it with no credible deterrent.

For analysts, this suggests a significant shift in the regional balance of power, potentially leading to more aggressive actions from Iran's adversaries who may no longer fear retaliation.

▶The Evisceration of the Proxy NetworkApr 2026

A core theme is the degradation of Iran's regional allies. Ostovar states that Hezbollah has been 'eviscerated' and Gaza-based militant groups no longer possess significant military capacity, undermining Iran's long-standing strategy of asymmetric warfare through proxies.

Investors in the region should monitor whether this power vacuum leads to increased instability or presents opportunities for state actors to reassert control in areas previously dominated by Iranian-backed militias.

▶Regime Miscalculation and Internal RepressionApr 2026

Ostovar posits that Iran's leadership misinterpreted previous U.S. restraint as a sign they were 'untouchable,' leading to a strategic overreach. He predicts that with its external power projection capabilities crippled, the regime will now turn inward, launching a severe wave of repression to maintain control.

This signals high political risk within Iran; analysts should watch for signs of increased domestic unrest and the regime's response, which could impact global energy markets and regional stability.

▶The Limits of Foreign Support for IranApr 2026

Ostovar highlights the constraints on Iran's ability to re-arm. He notes that Russia's own military depletion from the Ukraine war limits its capacity to help, and while China is the most likely supplier, this dependency creates new vulnerabilities for Tehran.

This dependency on China could alter geopolitical alignments in the Middle East, making Iran's military and economic future increasingly tied to Beijing's strategic interests.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

2007

Ostovar notes that during this period, there was widespread skepticism in academia and media regarding official U.S. reports of Iranian support for Iraqi militants, due to the perception that the Bush administration was seeking a pretext for war.

Post-January 2020

Following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Ostovar states that Iran launched the largest ballistic missile attack in history against U.S. forces in Iraq, an act he later suggests contributed to the regime's belief it was 'untouchable'.

One year prior to recent conflict

According to Ostovar, the Islamic Republic of Iran was at the 'apex of its regional power and influence' at this time.

Post-October 7th attacks

Ostovar claims that Iran responded to the attacks by coordinating a 'unified front' of attacks against Israel, utilizing its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

Present

In his current analysis, Ostovar assesses that Iran's military, nuclear deterrent, and proxy network have been 'eviscerated' by recent conflicts with Israel and the U.S., leaving the regime without a credible deterrent.

Suggested prompts

How does Afshon Ostovar's assessment of Iran's 'eviscerated' capabilities square with the regime's continued control over its internal security apparatus? &nearr;What are the second and third-order effects for regional stability if Ostovar is correct that Iran's proxy network has been neutralized? &nearr;Based on Ostovar's claims, what specific indicators would signal that Iran is beginning the 'severe wave of internal repression' he predicts? &nearr;How viable is China as a military resupply partner for Iran, and what strategic concessions might Tehran have to make in return? &nearr;

Key concepts

Iranian Military Degradation 1 ep Proxy Warfare 1 ep Nuclear Program & Deterrence 1 ep IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) 1 ep Geopolitical Strategy 1 ep Iran-Israel Conflict 1 ep Internal Regime Security 1 ep International Relations (Russia/China) 1 ep

Notable quotes

“Its air defenses are gone, its missiles are depleted...”

Afshon Ostovar · Introducing "The Iran Reckoning with Afshon Ostovar"

“Hezbollah has been eviscerated.”

Afshon Ostovar · Introducing "The Iran Reckoning with Afshon Ostovar"

“Iran is so thoroughly penetrated by Israeli intelligence. The idea that they could restart that program in secret and either move for a nuclear breakout or just try to get their program up and running again without the Israelis knowing and without the Israelis taking action, to me, would be really unlikely, right?”

Afshon Ostovar · Introducing "The Iran Reckoning with Afshon Ostovar"

“Iran has no deterrence left, right?”

Afshon Ostovar · Introducing "The Iran Reckoning with Afshon Ostovar"

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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