Karim Sadjadpour

Geopolitical analyst specializing in Iran and U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.

Mentions

Appeared in

Discussed in

Key positions and views

Military conflict between the U.S. and Iran is highly probable due to the profound diplomatic impasse and the hardline stances of both leaderships [26].

The Iranian regime is an ideologically backward-looking ('Vision 1979') and brittle entity, facing overwhelming domestic opposition and destined for eventual collapse, much like the Soviet Union [10, 25].

Despite its anti-American government, the Iranian populace is one of the most pro-American in the Middle East, a factor that complicates the narrative of a simple state-vs-state conflict [21].

Any U.S. military strike will be executed in close coordination with Israel, but will be publicly condemned by Persian Gulf allies who fear Iranian retaliation and will deny the use of their airspace [15, 18, 30].

The Trump administration's strategy of 'maximum pressure' is a deliberate attempt to force regime change or capitulation through severe economic and military coercion [29].

Podcast consensus on Sadjadpour

Points of consensus

▶Sadjadpour consistently asserts that the Trump administration's policy toward Iran involves maximum economic and military pressure, citing the withdrawal from the nuclear deal, the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, and a significant military buildup [28, 27, 31, 36].Apr 2026

▶He repeatedly states that any potential U.S. military action against Iran will be closely coordinated with Israel, which is both publicly supportive and privately encouraging such a strike [18, 30].Apr 2026

▶A core point of agreement in his analysis is that the Iranian regime's ideology, particularly Supreme Leader Khamenei's decades-long principle of resistance against the U.S., is the primary obstacle to a diplomatic solution [6, 10, 22].Apr 2026

▶He consistently characterizes the Iranian regime as being on 'borrowed time' due to widespread popular opposition and economic problems, drawing parallels to the final years of the Soviet Union [3, 4, 21, 25].

Points of debate

▶While Sadjadpour asserts that an estimated 80% of the Iranian population opposes the regime, this is presented as a speculative estimate rather than a hard fact, leaving the true extent of popular dissent open to interpretation [3].Apr 2026

▶He presents a contrast between the public and private positions of Persian Gulf countries, stating they will publicly oppose a U.S. strike while their private actions or desires may differ, creating an area of geopolitical uncertainty [15].Apr 2026

▶Sadjadpour notes that while there is a 'decent likelihood' of an attempt to assassinate Ayatollah Khamenei in a U.S. strike, this remains a speculative possibility rather than a confirmed component of U.S. strategy [19].Apr 2026

▶He describes the U.S.-Iran tension as a 'game of chicken' between two leaders, implying that while his analysis points toward conflict, the outcome is not fully determined and depends on the actions of key individuals [22].

Key themes

▶Imminent U.S.-Iran Military ConfrontationApr 2026

Sadjadpour outlines a scenario of escalating military tension, highlighted by the largest U.S. military buildup in the region since 2003. He argues that due to the low probability of a diplomatic deal, direct military action by the U.S., coordinated with Israel, is highly likely.

Analysts should monitor military deployments and Israeli political rhetoric closely, as these are presented as leading indicators of a potential conflict that could severely disrupt global energy markets and regional stability.

▶The Iranian Regime's Internal Fragility and External AggressionApr 2026

The analysis portrays the Iranian government as ideologically rigid ('Vision 1979'), brutal against its own people, and facing a deep crisis of legitimacy with a majority pro-American populace. This internal weakness is coupled with external aggression through regional proxies, missile threats, and support for Russia's war in Ukraine.

Investors should consider the high political risk associated with Iran, as the regime's potential for either lashing out externally or collapsing internally creates a volatile and unpredictable environment.

▶Geopolitical Alliances and Regional TensionsApr 2026

Sadjadpour details the clear division of alliances, with the U.S. and Israel on one side, and Iran supported by its regional proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah. He notes the precarious position of Persian Gulf states, who fear Iranian retaliation and will publicly oppose U.S. military action despite their strategic alignment with Washington.

The reluctance of Gulf states to openly support U.S. military action could complicate logistical planning for any strike and indicates that even U.S. allies are hedging against the fallout, signaling a high potential for regional destabilization.

▶The Failure of Diplomacy and U.S. Maximum Pressure

The path to a diplomatic solution is seen as blocked by irreconcilable demands. The U.S. insists on zero uranium enrichment and an end to regional proxy support, while Iran refuses these terms and will only negotiate on its nuclear program. This impasse fuels the Trump administration's strategy of maximum pressure to force a collapse or compromise.

The diplomatic stalemate suggests that sanctions and economic pressure are unlikely to be lifted in the near term, continuing to keep Iran's significant oil and gas reserves largely off the market and impacting long-term energy supply forecasts.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

2018

The Trump administration withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal with Iran negotiated by the Obama administration [28].

2020

The Trump administration ordered the assassination of Iran's top military commander, Qasem Soleimani [27].

Last summer

The United States reportedly conducted 'Operation Midnight Hammer,' dropping 14 bunker-busting bombs on Iran [35].

Last month

Sadjadpour cites estimates that the Iranian government killed as many as 30,000 of its own people in a 48-hour period [9].

Current

Describes the current U.S. military buildup in the Middle East as the largest since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, primarily for defensive purposes against potential Iranian retaliation [1, 31, 36].

Suggested prompts

How does Sadjadpour's assessment of widespread pro-American sentiment within Iran reconcile with the regime's continued ability to project power both domestically and regionally? &nearr;What are the primary risks and potential unintended consequences of the U.S. military actions that Sadjadpour anticipates, particularly concerning regional destabilization and global oil prices? &nearr;Based on Sadjadpour's analysis, what specific events or shifts in leadership could de-escalate the 'game of chicken' between the U.S. and Iran? &nearr;How does Sadjadpour's characterization of Ayatollah Khamenei's ideology as the central obstacle to compromise shape his predictions for the conflict's resolution? &nearr;

Key concepts

U.S.-Iran Relations 1 ep Iranian Domestic Politics 1 ep Middle East Geopolitics 1 ep Military Strategy & Escalation 1 ep U.S. Foreign Policy 1 ep Iran's Nuclear Program 1 ep Energy Politics 1 ep Israel-Iran Relations 1 ep Regional Proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis) 1 ep

Notable quotes

“the likelihood of a deal at this moment appears not very high. And for that reason, I think the likelihood that the United States takes military action is much higher.”

Karim Sadjadpour · Is the U.S. About to Go to War With Iran? | Prof G Conversations

“Israel is both publicly supportive of a strike. They're privately encouraging the president. And they will very likely be part of any U.S. operation against Iran.”

Karim Sadjadpour · Is the U.S. About to Go to War With Iran? | Prof G Conversations

“if the United States does decide to take military action, there's a decent likelihood that we will try to take out Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.”

Karim Sadjadpour · Is the U.S. About to Go to War With Iran? | Prof G Conversations

“publicly they're going to oppose a U.S. strike. And they publicly said they're not going to allow the United States to use their airspace to attack Iran because they don't want to be complicit in any operation because they fear the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Karim Sadjadpour · Is the U.S. About to Go to War With Iran? | Prof G Conversations

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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