Børge Brende

President of the World Economic Forum and geopolitical analyst.

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Key positions and views

Technological supremacy, particularly in AI, is the primary determinant of a nation's power in the 21st century.

The global economy is undergoing a structural slowdown and is highly vulnerable due to record-high debt levels, which limit traditional policy responses to crises.

US-China relations are shifting from deep integration towards strategic competition and 'securing' of supply chains, rather than a complete economic decoupling.

Cybercrime constitutes a massive and underappreciated threat to the global economy, costing trillions of dollars annually and necessitating international cooperation.

Generative AI is a transformative force that will unlock major productivity gains and accelerate scientific breakthroughs like nuclear fusion, but will also cause significant labor market disruption.

Podcast consensus on Brende

Points of consensus

▶Technology, particularly Artificial Intelligence, is identified as the most critical driver of future economic productivity and geopolitical power, capable of accelerating breakthroughs like nuclear fusion.Apr 2026

▶The global economy is in a fragile state, characterized by a structural slowdown in growth post-COVID, record-high debt levels unseen since 1945, and significant threats from cybercrime.Apr 2026

▶China's economy is navigating significant structural challenges, including a shrinking workforce and falling property prices, forcing a strategic pivot towards services and digital trade.Apr 2026

▶Major geopolitical relationships, especially between the US and China, are not heading towards a full decoupling but rather a 'securing' of value chains and strategic realignment, with bilateral trade patterns shifting significantly.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Brende highlights the dual nature of US-China relations, noting intense competition for technological supremacy while also identifying potential for cooperation in areas of mutual interest like combating cybercrime.Apr 2026

▶Generative AI is presented as a double-edged sword, offering immense potential for productivity gains and innovation while simultaneously posing a significant threat of job displacement, particularly for back-office roles.

▶The European economic landscape is depicted with contrasting dynamics: surprising growth and resilience in southern nations like Spain and Greece, juxtaposed with rising political fragmentation and risk in core countries like Germany.

▶While global economic integration is expected to persist, Brende's claims show a clear decline in specific trade corridors, such as China's exports to the US, indicating a tangible fracturing of previously established economic ties.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶Technological Determinism in the 21st CenturyApr 2026

Brende posits that leadership in new technologies, especially AI, will be the defining factor of national power and economic vitality in this century. He points to AI's potential to dramatically shorten development timelines for complex technologies like nuclear fusion and highlights China's emerging efficiency in developing advanced AI models at a lower cost.

Investors should prioritize tracking the national race for AI supremacy, as leadership in this domain is positioned as the primary indicator of future economic and military dominance, potentially reshaping global power balances.

▶A Slowing, Debt-Laden Global EconomyApr 2026

The analysis paints a picture of a global economy facing significant headwinds, including a decline in trend growth to 3% post-COVID and the highest global debt levels since 1945. This high debt constrains the ability of nation-states to use fiscal policy to combat potential recessions, while cybercrime extracts a multi-trillion dollar toll annually.

Analysts should model for a lower baseline of global growth and heightened vulnerability to economic shocks, as traditional fiscal stimulus measures are less available to governments, increasing systemic risk.

▶The Strategic Realignment of US-China RelationsApr 2026

Brende characterizes the US-China relationship not as a simple decoupling but as a complex realignment. This is evidenced by the significant drop in China's export dependency on the US, from 20% to 11-12%, alongside an intense competition for technological leadership. However, he also identifies shared interests, like fighting cybercrime, that could foster targeted cooperation.

The US-China dynamic creates a bifurcated risk environment: heightened risk in sectors central to national security and tech leadership (e.g., semiconductors), but potential opportunities in areas of mandated global cooperation (e.g., cybersecurity solutions).

▶A Divergent and Shifting Europe

Brende's commentary reveals a European continent with diverging fortunes and evolving strategic priorities. He notes the surprising economic performance of Spain and Greece, while also flagging the political risk from the rise of the AfD party in Germany. This occurs against the backdrop of learning from past strategic errors, such as the over-reliance on Russian natural gas.

A monolithic investment strategy for Europe is increasingly untenable; capital allocation must be highly selective, weighing the growth opportunities in resilient peripheral economies against the political volatility within the continent's traditional core.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

2013

Marks a reference point for peak Chinese export dependency on the United States, with 20% of its total exports directed there.

Pre-2022

Brende identifies this period as one of a major European strategic mistake, characterized by a dependency on Russia for almost half of its natural gas supply.

Post-COVID Era

Characterized by a slowdown in global economic trend growth from a long-term average of nearly 4% to closer to 3%.

Present Day

Brende notes that global debt has reached its highest level since 1945, severely limiting the fiscal capacity of nations. Concurrently, the World Economic Forum undergoes a leadership transition as founder Klaus Schwab steps down.

Coming Decade

Brende predicts this period will be defined by technology-driven productivity gains of up to 10% and the potential commercialization of nuclear fusion, accelerated by AI.

Suggested prompts

How does Brende's concept of an 'electrostate' apply to nations beyond China, and what are the investment implications of this energy transition model? &nearr;Given Brende's view on high global debt limiting fiscal responses, what alternative tools can nations realistically employ to stimulate growth during a recession? &nearr;Beyond cybercrime, what other specific areas of 'common interest' could plausibly de-escalate US-China tensions within Brende's framework of strategic competition? &nearr;What specific policy interventions could mitigate the large-scale displacement of back-office jobs that Brende predicts as a consequence of generative AI adoption? &nearr;

Key concepts

Global Economy 5 ep Artificial Intelligence 4 ep European Economy & Politics 4 ep US-China Relations 3 ep Chinese Economy 3 ep World Economic Forum 3 ep Energy Transition 2 ep Cybersecurity 2 ep

Notable quotes

“We probably lose like four or five trillion US dollars a year in cybercrime. That's like three, four percent of the global GDP.”

Børge Brende · Børge Brende | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management

“Gen.ai now can accelerate, for example, fusion nuclear that we thought was maybe going to be available in three or four decades commercially. Maybe we can do it in a decade.”

Børge Brende · Børge Brende | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management

“the fact that we have the highest global debt since 1945 also gives nation states a harder time if we're going to see a recession there is not that much of fiscal muscles”

Børge Brende · Børge Brende | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management

“the country that's on top of the new technologies will probably emerge as the most powerful nation also of this century.”

Børge Brende · Børge Brende | Podcast | In Good Company | Norges Bank Investment Management

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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