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Ian Bremmer

Geopolitical analyst and political scientist specializing in global risk.

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Key positions and views

A second Trump presidency would prioritize the consolidation of executive power by taking political control of the administrative state, including the DOJ and FBI, to ensure their loyalty.

The United States' global standing would be significantly damaged by a major military strike on Iran, leading to its perception as a 'rogue state'.

China is building a long-term strategic advantage over the U.S. in the AI race by mastering the entire 'electric stack' (energy, batteries, grids), which is essential for deploying AI at scale.

The unregulated, rapid deployment of consumer-facing AI by tech companies poses a greater societal danger than the negative impacts of social media.

Modern geopolitical conflicts are increasingly defined by attacks on critical economic infrastructure, such as LNG facilities, desalination plants, and undersea cables, which can cause damage comparable to major wars or pandemics.

Podcast consensus on Bremmer

Points of consensus

▶Ian Bremmer consistently portrays Donald Trump's foreign policy as highly transactional, preferring to exert influence over individual, weaker countries rather than engaging with strong, unified blocs like the European Union.Apr 2026

▶Bremmer's analysis highlights a new era of conflict characterized by asymmetric attacks on critical economic and digital infrastructure, citing Russian actions against Europe and Iranian capabilities in the Gulf.Apr 2026

▶A recurring theme in Bremmer's analysis is the strategic technological rivalry between the U.S. and China, particularly in the domains of Artificial Intelligence and the underlying energy infrastructure required to power it.

▶Bremmer expresses significant concern over the erosion of democratic institutions and checks and balances within the United States, particularly the potential for a president to take political control of administrative agencies like the DOJ and FBI.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Bremmer outlines the high-stakes tension between the U.S. and Iran, analyzing the potential for a devastating regional war while simultaneously predicting that President Trump will ultimately avoid a major direct military strike.Apr 2026

▶He details the conflict between Russia and frontline NATO states, where Russia employs asymmetric warfare (cyber attacks, sabotage) and these European nations contemplate collective countermeasures, including offensive cyber operations.Apr 2026

▶Bremmer presents the U.S.-China dynamic over Taiwan as a tense standoff, where China is currently deterred by Taiwan's strong defenses and critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain, but where U.S. policy under Trump could be unpredictable.

▶He describes a strategic divergence in AI policy, contrasting China's strict regulation of consumer-facing AI with the U.S. and Europe's more permissive, market-driven approach, which he views as a significant societal risk.

Key themes

▶Trump's Transactional and Disruptive Geopolitics

Bremmer portrays a potential second Trump administration as one that fundamentally reshapes U.S. foreign policy around bilateral, transactional deals. This approach involves pressuring allies like Japan for massive investments, bypassing traditional diplomatic channels with countries like Denmark over Greenland, and applying uneven pressure in conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war to achieve rapid, albeit potentially unstable, resolutions.

Investors should anticipate increased volatility and unpredictability in international relations and trade agreements, as long-standing alliances may be deprioritized in favor of short-term, personality-driven deals.

▶The New Era of Asymmetric ConflictApr 2026

Bremmer emphasizes that modern conflicts are increasingly fought through indirect and asymmetric means, targeting critical infrastructure. He points to Russia's use of cyber attacks, sabotage of undersea lines, and drone incursions against Europe, as well as Iran's capability to strike vital targets like LNG facilities and desalination plants in the Gulf, causing massive economic and humanitarian damage without a full-scale conventional war.

Analysts must broaden their definition of geopolitical risk beyond traditional military conflict to include the vulnerability of supply chains, energy infrastructure, and digital networks to state-sponsored sabotage.

▶US-China Strategic Rivalry in Foundational TechApr 2026

According to Bremmer, the core of the U.S.-China competition is a race for technological supremacy, but with differing strategies. While the U.S. focuses on developing the most advanced AI models, China is building a strategic advantage by mastering the entire 'electric stack'—energy, batteries, grids, and manufacturing—creating a cheaper, scalable infrastructure essential for powering AI globally.

Long-term technological dominance may not be determined solely by the most advanced software, but by control over the physical infrastructure and energy supply chains that enable its widespread deployment.

▶Erosion of U.S. Democratic InstitutionsApr 2026

Bremmer warns of a deliberate effort under a Trump presidency to dismantle institutional checks and balances. This includes taking political control of the administrative state—specifically the FBI, DOJ, and IRS—to ensure loyalty to the executive, a move he describes as part of a 'political revolution' aimed at preventing the opposition from returning to power.

The politicization of traditionally independent government agencies represents a significant domestic risk, potentially impacting regulatory stability, contract enforcement, and the overall business environment in the United States.

Source episodes

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Changes over time

Present Day Analysis

In 'Trump Threatened to End Iranian Civilization — What Comes Next?', Bremmer analyzes the immediate, escalating conflict in the Middle East. He details specific strikes by Iran and Israel, U.S. troop deployments, and the severe economic risks, such as damage to Qatar's LNG capacity, while arguing that Trump will likely avoid a full-scale war to protect the U.S. economy.

Forward Look to 2026

In 'The Biggest Global Risks for 2026', Bremmer presents a series of scenarios and analyses projecting the state of the world under a hypothetical second Trump term. This discourse shifts to a wider range of topics including the successful U.S. operation against Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, a detailed plan to acquire Greenland from Denmark, and the domestic 'political revolution' to consolidate power within the executive branch.

Suggested prompts

According to Ian Bremmer's analysis, what are the primary mechanisms through which a second Trump administration would attempt to dismantle institutional checks and balances in the U.S.? &nearr;How does Bremmer contrast the strategic approaches of the United States and China in the global competition for AI dominance? &nearr;Based on Bremmer's claims, what are the most significant economic vulnerabilities exposed by the shift towards asymmetric warfare in the Middle East and Europe? &nearr;How does Bremmer's assessment of Trump's policy towards Greenland exemplify his broader theory of a transactional and disruptive U.S. foreign policy? &nearr;

Key concepts

Donald Trump's Presidency 2 ep US Foreign Policy 2 ep Iran Conflict 1 ep US-China Relations 1 ep Russia-Ukraine War 1 ep Artificial Intelligence (AI) 1 ep Venezuela 1 ep Greenland Acquisition 1 ep European Politics 1 ep Taiwan 1 ep

Notable quotes

“Trump taking political control of the administrative state, making it fully loyal to him, answerable and accountable to him, weaponizing the power ministries of the U.S., specifically the FBI, the Department of Justice, the IRS, other such organizations”

Ian Bremmer · The Biggest Global Risks for 2026 — with Ian Bremmer | Prof G Conversations

“if it continues, will not only cause unheard of economic damage, could make this war comparable to or worse than the damage that we saw and experienced all of us during the pandemic”

Ian Bremmer · Trump Threatened to End Iranian Civilization — What Comes Next?

“we're in New York City and so is Nicolas Maduro in a holding cell in Brooklyn. His wife is here as well. They're in American custody, have pleaded not guilty to drug trafficking and other federal charges.”

Ian Bremmer · The Biggest Global Risks for 2026 — with Ian Bremmer | Prof G Conversations

“What America's embrace of a GZERO world means is that America's friends who have relied on the United States for upholding rule of law now feel that the United States is not reliable.”

Ian Bremmer · The Biggest Global Risks for 2026 — with Ian Bremmer | Prof G Conversations

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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