Anna Kaufmannani

Energy and commodities analyst providing expert commentary on global markets.

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Key positions and views

A permanent risk premium will be priced into commodities going forward because the current crisis has unequivocally demonstrated Iran's power to close the Strait of Hormuz.

The world's spare oil production capacity is critically dependent on the Strait of Hormuz remaining open, as it is concentrated in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, and existing bypass infrastructure is insufficient to reroute total output.

The current crisis is causing more significant oil demand destruction than previously anticipated and is creating severe disruptions in non-fuel commodity supply chains, particularly for chemical feedstocks like naphtha and natural gas for fertilizers.

Nations are actively shifting their energy policies toward security and self-sufficiency, as seen in China's investments after its 2021 power crisis and the potential for the U.S. to delay coal plant retirements to ensure electricity supply.

Gulf countries are managing the crisis more effectively than expected by fully utilizing strategic pipelines and demonstrating higher-than-anticipated inventory capacity, which minimizes the need to shut in production.

Podcast consensus on Kaufmannani

Points of consensus

▶Anna Kaufmannani consistently identifies the Strait of Hormuz as the most critical chokepoint for global energy security, noting that the world's spare oil production capacity is located behind it and bypass pipelines are insufficient to reroute all production.Apr 2026

▶She maintains that the current geopolitical crisis has caused significant, tangible disruptions to commodity markets, citing the supply of naphtha, drawdowns in global oil inventories, and curtailments of natural gas for fertilizer production.Apr 2026

▶Kaufmannani's analysis highlights that key energy-producing nations are actively using strategic infrastructure to mitigate disruptions, such as Saudi Arabia fully utilizing its east-west pipeline and Gulf countries leveraging high inventory capacity.Apr 2026

▶She repeatedly points to nations adapting their long-term energy strategies in response to security concerns, such as China's increased investment in coal and renewables and the potential for the U.S. to delay retiring coal plants.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Kaufmannani presents a tension in U.S. energy policy, where tariffs are used to incentivize domestic metals production while the nation may simultaneously need to rely on older, less-favored energy sources like coal to meet electricity demand.Apr 2026

▶She highlights the limited effectiveness of strategic infrastructure, noting that while Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline is now fully utilized to bypass Hormuz, it lacks the capacity to handle the country's entire oil output.Apr 2026

▶Her analysis identifies a conflict between market forces, where significant oil demand destruction is occurring, yet a 'permanent risk premium' is simultaneously being priced into commodities due to geopolitical threats.Apr 2026

▶Kaufmannani points to the dual-edged nature of strategic reserves, observing that while they are necessary to manage a prolonged crisis, their utilization creates a future requirement for replenishment, impacting future market balances.

Key themes

▶Geopolitical Chokepoints and Strategic InfrastructureApr 2026

Kaufmannani's analysis centers on the vulnerability of the global energy supply to chokepoints, specifically the Strait of Hormuz. She details how nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE use bypass pipelines and storage capacity to mitigate this risk, while also emphasizing that these measures are insufficient to fully replace the Strait's throughput.

Investors should price in higher and more persistent volatility for energy assets, as Kaufmannani's analysis suggests that existing strategic infrastructure provides only a partial buffer against major geopolitical disruptions.

▶Fundamental Repricing of Commodity RiskApr 2026

A core theme is that the current crisis has permanently altered the market's perception of risk. Kaufmannani argues that Iran's demonstrated ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz will result in a 'permanent risk premium' being priced into commodities, moving beyond short-term price spikes.

Analysts should adjust their long-term commodity price models to include a structural geopolitical risk premium, as the market is unlikely to return to its previous baseline assumptions about supply security.

▶Cascading Impacts on Global Supply ChainsApr 2026

Kaufmannani extends her analysis beyond crude oil to the downstream effects on industrial supply chains. She highlights the disruption in naphtha (a key chemical feedstock), the curtailment of natural gas for fertilizer production in South Asia, and the fact that 95% of manufactured goods rely on chemical inputs.

This focus on secondary effects indicates that industrial and agricultural sectors are highly exposed to energy market disruptions, creating non-obvious risks for portfolios concentrated in those areas.

▶National Energy Security Policy ShiftsApr 2026

She observes that nations are actively revising their energy policies to prioritize security over other goals. This is evidenced by China's increased investment in domestic coal and renewables post-2021, U.S. tariffs on metals to encourage domestic production, and the suggestion that the U.S. may delay retiring coal plants.

The global trend towards prioritizing energy security could create new investment opportunities in domestic energy production, including traditional fossil fuels and renewables, as nations seek to reduce reliance on vulnerable supply chains.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Prior to 2021

Kaufmannani notes that Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline was underutilized before the current crisis, indicating a different strategic posture.

2021

An electricity crisis in China prompted a strategic shift, leading the country to increase investment in both domestic coal production and renewable generation to bolster energy security.

Start of Current Crisis

Kaufmannani identifies immediate impacts, including the curtailment of natural gas supplies to fertilizer sectors in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, and a major disruption to the supply of naphtha.

During Current Crisis

Her analysis indicates visible global oil inventories have drawn down significantly, while oil demand destruction is proving higher than expected. Concurrently, Gulf countries have curtailed less production than anticipated due to strategic use of pipelines and storage.

Current Forecast (Baseline)

Kaufmannani's firm's year-end forecast for Brent crude is around $80 per barrel, which aligns with current trading levels.

Future Forecast (Adverse Scenario)

She presents a revised adverse scenario where a delayed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to mid-May would push Brent crude prices into the $90 to $100 per barrel range.

Suggested prompts

How does Anna Kaufmannani's assessment of a 'permanent risk premium' alter long-term investment models for energy infrastructure and commodity-linked assets? &nearr;What are the cascading economic effects for the global manufacturing and agricultural sectors if the naphtha and natural gas disruptions highlighted by Kaufmannani persist? &nearr;To what extent do the bypass pipelines and inventory capacities in the Gulf, as detailed by Kaufmannani, truly mitigate the strategic risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure? &nearr;Based on Kaufmannani's claims, what are the primary policy trade-offs facing the United States in balancing domestic industrial incentives, energy transition goals, and near-term electricity security? &nearr;

Key concepts

Strait of Hormuz 1 ep Oil Prices & Forecasting 1 ep US Energy & Trade Policy 1 ep Saudi Arabia 1 ep Global Oil Inventories 1 ep Commodity Supply Chains 1 ep Spare Production Capacity 1 ep China's Energy Policy 1 ep Strategic Petroleum Reserves 1 ep United Arab Emirates (UAE) 1 ep

Notable quotes

“Is there going to be some permanent risk premium on commodities because Iran has the power to close the strait? And it is now clear to the world that Iran wields this power? We think so.”

Anna Kaufmannani · Oil Traders Say Billion-Barrel Hole Will Linger Long After War

“The world's spare oil production capacity is primarily located in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, and its accessibility is dependent on the Strait of Hormuz remaining open.”

Anna Kaufmannani · Oil Traders Say Billion-Barrel Hole Will Linger Long After War

“A delayed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would necessitate greater utilization of strategic petroleum reserves, which would need to be replenished later.”

Anna Kaufmannani · Oil Traders Say Billion-Barrel Hole Will Linger Long After War

“Anna Kaufmannani suggests the United States may need to delay the retirement of some coal-fired power plants to meet future electricity demand.”

Anna Kaufmannani · Oil Traders Say Billion-Barrel Hole Will Linger Long After War

Report last updated: Apr 28, 2026

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