Karis Templeman

Geopolitical analyst specializing in China, Taiwan, and international law.

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Key positions and views

The PRC is actively and successfully using diplomatic 'lawfare' to create a permissive international environment for potential military action against Taiwan.

China is deliberately misrepresenting UN Resolution 2758 to falsely claim international legal backing for its sovereignty over Taiwan.

A recent, widespread diplomatic offensive has caused a majority of nations endorsing China's stance on Taiwan to shift their position within the last 18 months, often dropping calls for peaceful resolution.

The official U.S. position is that Taiwan's status is undetermined and must be resolved peacefully with the consent of both sides, a stance codified in the Taiwan Relations Act.

Taiwan's role as the main supplier of advanced semiconductors to the U.S. is a critical factor in the military and economic implications of a potential conflict.

Podcast consensus on Templeman

Points of consensus

▶Karis Templeman repeatedly emphasizes that the People's Republic of China is engaged in a recent and highly successful diplomatic offensive, particularly in the last 18 months, to get countries to endorse its position on Taiwan.Apr 2026

▶Templeman consistently points out that the PRC misrepresents UN Resolution 2758, falsely claiming it endorses PRC sovereignty over Taiwan when the text does not mention Taiwan at all.Apr 2026

▶Multiple claims highlight a specific shift in the language of joint statements between the PRC and other nations (e.g., Malaysia, Sri Lanka), where calls for 'peaceful' resolution are being omitted in favor of supporting 'all efforts' for reunification.Apr 2026

▶Templeman's analysis consistently distinguishes between the U.S. 'One China policy' (which acknowledges but does not endorse the PRC's position) and the PRC's 'One China principle,' clarifying that the U.S. considers Taiwan's status undetermined.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Templeman's analysis presents a contrast between the formal, long-standing U.S. legal position outlined in the Taiwan Relations Act and the recent, rapid success of the PRC's diplomatic campaign, raising questions about the current efficacy of U.S. policy.

▶There is a notable shift in the stance of African nations, which in 2021 issued a joint statement supporting peaceful dispute resolution without mentioning Taiwan, but by September 2024 had 53 governments sign a statement supporting 'all China's unification efforts.'Apr 2026

▶Templeman highlights a subtle but significant linguistic battle, contrasting the traditional U.S. position of 'does not support Taiwan independence' with the PRC's desired phrasing of 'opposes Taiwan independence,' indicating a point of diplomatic friction.Apr 2026

▶The analysis juxtaposes the PRC's assertion of its right to use any means for unification with the Taiwan Relations Act's explicit definition of any non-peaceful effort as a 'threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific.'Apr 2026

Key themes

▶China's Diplomatic 'Lawfare' Against TaiwanApr 2026

Templeman argues the PRC is systematically using international diplomacy and joint statements to build a legal and political pretext for potential military action against Taiwan. This involves securing endorsements for its 'One China principle' and gradually removing language that calls for a peaceful resolution.

Analysts should monitor the specific wording of bilateral agreements between China and other nations, as the omission of 'peaceful means' is a key indicator of Beijing's success in normalizing the potential use of force.

▶Erosion of International Norms on TaiwanApr 2026

A core theme is the PRC's successful campaign to alter international consensus on Taiwan's status. Templeman highlights that a majority of the 70+ countries endorsing China's position have done so in the last 18 months, indicating a rapid and recent shift in the global diplomatic landscape.

This trend suggests that historical diplomatic positions are increasingly vulnerable to concerted economic and political pressure, posing a risk to the stability of long-standing geopolitical arrangements.

▶Misinterpretation of International ResolutionsApr 2026

Templeman repeatedly points out the PRC's deliberate misrepresentation of UN Resolution 2758. She clarifies that the resolution, which transferred China's UN seat to the PRC, makes no mention of Taiwan's sovereignty, yet Beijing consistently cites it as international endorsement of its claim.

This highlights the importance of scrutinizing primary source documents in international law, as state actors may actively promote interpretations that are not supported by the actual text to advance their geopolitical goals.

▶The Nuances of U.S. Policy and the Taiwan Relations ActApr 2026

Templeman emphasizes the specific and legally binding nature of U.S. policy toward Taiwan. She distinguishes the U.S. 'One China policy' from Beijing's 'principle' and underscores the Taiwan Relations Act's mandate to provide defensive arms and view any non-peaceful resolution as a 'grave concern.'

Investors and analysts must understand that U.S. policy is not passive; it contains legal obligations that could trigger significant U.S. involvement in a cross-strait conflict, making it a critical variable in risk assessment.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

2021

At a summit, a joint statement from African governments and China supported peaceful dispute resolution and did not explicitly mention Taiwan.

Last 18 months (relative to mid-2024)

Templeman identifies the start of an intense Chinese diplomatic offensive across the Global South, resulting in a majority of the ~70 countries that endorse China's position on Taiwan doing so in this period.

2024-01

Sri Lanka signed a joint statement with China for the first time supporting 'all efforts' for reunification, omitting previous calls for peaceful means.

2024-06

A joint statement between Malaysia and the PRC adopted new language recognizing Taiwan as Chinese territory for 'national reunification' and dropped previous calls for peaceful resolution.

2024-09

Representatives from 53 African governments signed a joint statement in Beijing supporting 'all China's unification efforts' regarding Taiwan, a significant shift from their 2021 position.

Suggested prompts

How effective is the U.S. Taiwan Relations Act as a deterrent in the face of China's successful diplomatic campaign to normalize the use of force? &nearr;What economic or political factors are driving the rapid shift in the Global South's alignment with the PRC's position on Taiwan? &nearr;What are the potential consequences for international law and the UN system if the PRC's interpretation of Resolution 2758 becomes widely accepted? &nearr;Beyond diplomatic statements, what other 'lawfare' tactics is the PRC employing to isolate Taiwan and build a case for unification? &nearr;

Key concepts

PRC Diplomatic Offensive 2 ep Lawfare 1 ep Taiwan's International Status 2 ep US 'One China' Policy 1 ep Taiwan Relations Act 1 ep UN Resolution 2758 1 ep Global South Diplomacy 1 ep Semiconductor Supply Chain 1 ep

Notable quotes

“the PRC is laying the groundwork to justify military action against Taiwan and trying preemptively to divide and demobilize international opposition to that action.”

Karis Templeman · The International Dimensions of China’s Lawfare against Taiwan | Hoover Institution

“of the 70-odd states around the world that have adopted that position in joint statements, the vast majority have shifted in the last 18 months after a Chinese diplomatic offensive across the global south.”

Karis Templeman · The International Dimensions of China’s Lawfare against Taiwan | Hoover Institution

“They claim that that resolution also endorsed PRC sovereignty over Taiwan. But in fact, UN Resolution 2758 says nothing about Taiwan.”

Karis Templeman · The International Dimensions of China’s Lawfare against Taiwan | Hoover Institution

“the U.S. position then, as now, is that Taiwan's international status remains undetermined, unsettled, and that the resolution of that status must be both voluntary and require the consent of representatives of both sides of the Taiwan Strait.”

Karis Templeman · The International Dimensions of China’s Lawfare against Taiwan | Hoover Institution

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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