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NASDAQ

Financials · Business

Mentions

Podcasts

Episodes

Podcast consensus

Points of consensus

▶NASDAQ is actively innovating and adapting its business model, with plans to move operations 'on chain,' support tokenized securities, and change listing rules to attract major new companies like SpaceX.Apr 2026

▶The NASDAQ index is characterized by extreme volatility, having experienced massive drawdowns of 78-80% after the dot-com bubble and sharp declines in response to events like tariff announcements.Apr 2026

▶The NASDAQ index is highly concentrated, with the top seven 'Mag 7' stocks accounting for over 50% of its market capitalization, which some analysts believe makes it a narrow indicator of market health.Apr 2026

▶The performance of the NASDAQ is strongly tied to macroeconomic factors, showing a 97.5% correlation with global liquidity and reacting significantly to geopolitical news and central bank policy.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶There is disagreement on the future performance of the NASDAQ. Richard Bernstein predicts disappointing returns over the next decade due to concentration, while others point to its historical ability to outperform currency debasement and double when market consensus is bearish.Apr 2026

▶The NASDAQ's value as a performance benchmark is debated. While the venture capital industry has reportedly struggled to outperform it, specific 'compounder' companies and European bank stocks have successfully outperformed the index.Apr 2026

▶The relationship between NASDAQ and other asset classes appears to be shifting. While historically correlated with assets like Bitcoin, a recent divergence has been noted, suggesting its correlations are not static.Apr 2026

▶The significance of the NASDAQ's performance as a market health indicator is contested. Its heavy concentration in mega-cap tech is contrasted with the broader, more diversified NYSE Composite, which is viewed by some as a better signal of overall market breadth.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶Index of Extremes: Concentration and VolatilityApr 2026

The NASDAQ is defined by its heavy concentration in a few mega-cap technology stocks, with the 'Mag 7' comprising over half its value. This composition fuels its characteristic volatility, leading to historic collapses of up to 80% and sharp, multi-percent swings in response to geopolitical and economic news.

Investors using the NASDAQ as a market proxy must understand it is less a diversified market barometer and more a concentrated, high-beta bet on the largest technology companies and global liquidity conditions.

▶Adapting to the New EconomyApr 2026

NASDAQ is actively evolving its rules and market structure to attract the next generation of dominant companies. This is evidenced by its 'abnormal' rule changes to fast-track the inclusion of large private companies like SpaceX and its success in attracting major listings like Walmart away from the NYSE.

NASDAQ's strategic flexibility demonstrates an aggressive push to maintain its relevance as the premier destination for growth and technology companies, prioritizing market leadership over procedural tradition.

▶The Frontier of Financial TechnologyApr 2026

Beyond its role as an exchange, NASDAQ is positioning itself as a financial technology pioneer. The CEO has publicly stated an intention to move operations 'on chain,' and the company is actively working with other major financial institutions to adopt and support tokenized securities.

This strategic focus on blockchain and digital assets signals a long-term vision to transform its core infrastructure, potentially creating new revenue streams while also introducing novel technological and operational risks.

▶A Barometer for Global Liquidity and RiskApr 2026

The NASDAQ's performance is shown to be exceptionally sensitive to macroeconomic forces, with a 97.5% correlation to global liquidity. Its movements are tightly linked to monetary policy, tariff announcements, and geopolitical tensions, making it a key indicator of investor risk appetite.

For analysts, the NASDAQ serves as a high-fidelity proxy for global risk-on/risk-off sentiment, offering a clearer signal of macro shifts than more diversified and less tech-heavy indices.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

Late 1998 - Early 2000

Following Federal Reserve rate cuts in 1998, the NASDAQ index experienced a massive bull run, increasing by 225% in approximately 18 months.

2000

The dot-com bubble burst, causing the NASDAQ index to collapse by 78-80% from its peak. An investment made at the peak would have yielded a negative return over the subsequent decade.

2022

The NASDAQ index experienced a significant downturn, falling 30% over the year, a steeper decline than the S&P 500's 20% drop.

Early 2023

Defying a Wall Street consensus for a market decline, the NASDAQ index reportedly doubled, showcasing its potential for sharp reversals.

Recent Discourse

Discourse centers on NASDAQ's structural changes and future direction, including its heavy concentration in 'Mag 7' stocks, attracting Walmart from the NYSE, and controversially changing index rules to potentially accommodate a future SpaceX IPO.

Suggested prompts

How does the heavy concentration of the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks impact the NASDAQ's utility as a broad market indicator versus a sector-specific bet? &nearr;What are the potential long-term consequences, both positive and negative, of NASDAQ altering its index inclusion rules to accommodate large private companies like SpaceX? &nearr;Given NASDAQ's stated intention to move 'on chain' and support tokenized securities, what are the primary operational risks and competitive advantages of this strategy? &nearr;With a 97.5% correlation to global liquidity, how should investors adjust their NASDAQ exposure based on anticipated changes in central bank monetary policy? &nearr;

Key concepts

Index Performance & Volatility 19 ep Macroeconomic Correlation 5 ep Index Composition & Concentration 5 ep Company Listings 5 ep Tariff Impact 2 ep Listing Rules & Changes 2 ep Blockchain & Tokenization 2 ep Prediction Markets 1 ep Licensing & ETFs 1 ep

Notable quotes

“The CEO of NASDAQ has publicly spoken about the exchange's intention to move its operations "on chain."”

Ryan Lovell · Ryan Lovell – Chainlink: The Infrastructure Pipes for Multi-Chain Finance (EP.491)

“[0:21:58 -> 0:22:05] When you look at the NASDAQ, it is even more absurdly highly correlated. It's 97.5% correlated with money printing.”

Raoul Pal · URGENT: Raoul Pal's Macro Thesis UPDATE

“It seems like NASDAQ has changed its rules to fast track listing SpaceX so that shortly, you know weeks after it goes public it be in the NASDAQ 100”

Matt Levine · Humiliation Ritual | Money Stuff: The Podcast

“The S&P went down 50%. The NASDAQ went down 80%, which is a lot.”

Jeremy Grantham · Jeremy Grantham – Bubbles, Value Investing, and the Long Game at GMO (EP. 493)

Report last updated: Apr 20, 2026

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