Leo

Venture Capitalist at Susa Ventures and analyst of defense technology and logistics.

Claims

As speaker

Mentioned in

Key positions and views

The most valuable venture investments are typically non-consensus deals that are initially difficult to fund, not those that are quickly backed by major firms.

The U.S. military's operational effectiveness is critically hampered by siloed, legacy software systems and a vulnerable 'just-in-time' logistics model that is ill-suited for a contested environment.

Modern AI companies are rewriting growth playbooks and obsoleting traditional SaaS benchmarks like T2D3, but their long-term competitive moats are significantly weaker, making them prone to rapid disruption.

Investor sentiment and hype, rather than fundamentals, often drive unsustainable valuations in sectors like defense tech, e-commerce, and humanoid robotics, requiring disciplined investors to pause activity.

The era of uncontested U.S. domestic logistics is over due to new geopolitical threats from cyber, space, and hypersonic weapons, necessitating a fundamental shift in military strategy toward collective and resilient logistics.

Podcast consensus on Leo

Points of consensus

▶Leo consistently argues that the best venture capital returns come from non-consensus investments, citing that many of his firm's top-performing deals were difficult to fund initially and experienced massive valuation step-ups later.Apr 2026

▶He maintains a critical view of market sentiment and hype, pointing to inflated valuations in defense tech, humanoid robotics, and momentum-driven investing as examples of irrationality detached from company fundamentals.Apr 2026

▶Across his commentary, Leo emphasizes that the U.S. military's operational capability is severely constrained by legacy, siloed software systems that prevent effective data access, understanding, and optimization.Apr 2026

▶Leo asserts that U.S. and NATO logistics are dangerously vulnerable, highlighting the fragility of 'just-in-time' models and the new reality that domestic infrastructure is no longer safe from geopolitical threats like cyber and hypersonic weapons.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Leo champions non-consensus investing but also notes that highly-valued, consensus-like seed rounds for proven founders (e.g., Palmer Luckey's Anduril) are a market reality, creating a tension between his core thesis and practical market dynamics.Apr 2026

▶He presents a bifurcated view of AI companies: he is bullish on their unprecedented growth speed, which makes traditional SaaS models like 'T2D3' obsolete, yet he is bearish on their long-term defensibility and endurance due to weak competitive moats.

▶Leo identifies a critical need for modern software and technology within the Department of Defense, yet reveals his own firm paused investments in the defense tech sector due to valuations becoming disconnected from fundamentals, highlighting a conflict between identified need and investment viability.Apr 2026

▶He observes that top-quartile funds from the 2010s succeeded by investing during market pessimism, but his current analysis focuses on overheated, hype-driven sectors, suggesting a potential conflict between the historical strategy he admires and the present market he must navigate.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶The Non-Consensus Investing DoctrineApr 2026

Leo's core investment philosophy is built on backing non-consensus ideas. He argues that the most successful companies in his portfolio were often those that struggled to raise initial funding, and he is critical of 'consensus investing' where firms follow brand-name leads like Sequoia or Andreessen Horowitz with minimal diligence.

For analysts, this suggests Leo's firm is more likely to invest in contrarian founders or unproven markets, potentially indicating a higher risk tolerance but also a focus on generating outlier returns rather than following trends.

▶America's Software and Logistics CrisisApr 2026

Leo posits that the U.S. military and national infrastructure face a critical vulnerability due to outdated, siloed software and a fragile 'just-in-time' logistics model. He argues that the inability to access and optimize data, coupled with new threats to domestic supply chains, puts national security at risk.

This theme signals a significant market opportunity for companies building resilient logistics platforms and interoperable software for defense, a sector Leo is clearly monitoring despite recent valuation concerns.

▶The New Paradigm of AI Growth and DefensibilityApr 2026

Leo observes that AI companies are achieving growth milestones, like reaching $100M ARR, at a speed that makes previous SaaS benchmarks like 'T2D3' seem antiquated. However, he expresses significant skepticism about their long-term endurance, believing their competitive moats are weak and susceptible to rapid disruption.

Investors should note Leo's dual-focused criteria for AI: while hyper-growth is the new baseline, the key to a successful long-term investment will be identifying durable, defensible moats that can prevent rapid revenue decline.

▶Valuation Discipline in Hype-Driven MarketsApr 2026

A recurring theme is Leo's caution regarding market hype driving valuations beyond fundamental value. He cites humanoid robotics, defense tech post-Ukraine, and even e-commerce trends as sectors where investor sentiment can create bubbles, leading his firm to pause investing until valuations realign with reality.

This indicates Leo is a valuation-sensitive investor who is willing to sit out of 'hot' sectors, suggesting his investment decisions are more disciplined and less influenced by market momentum or FOMO.

Source episodes

Timeline

2010s Era

Observes that the top-performing venture funds of this decade, which backed companies like Airbnb and Uber, succeeded by investing during a period of widespread market pessimism, forming a basis for his non-consensus philosophy.

Founding/Growth Period

His firm, Susa Ventures, makes a series of non-consensus seed investments that later become unicorns. He notes that 6 to 8 of his top 10 investments took months to raise their initial rounds.

Circa 2022-2024

His firm pauses new investments in the defense technology sector for a period of 1.5 to 2 years. This decision was driven by a 2x to 4x increase in valuations following the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, which he believed was not justified by changes in company fundamentals.

Present

Actively analyzes the current tech landscape, articulating the dual nature of AI companies (hyper-growth vs. weak moats), critiquing hype in areas like humanoid robotics, and highlighting the urgent software and logistics crisis facing the U.S. military.

Suggested prompts

How does Leo reconcile his belief in non-consensus investing with the market reality that experienced founders with major exits command consensus-level valuations? &nearr;Given Leo's skepticism about the long-term endurance of AI companies, what specific characteristics or moats would an AI investment need to have to fit his firm's thesis? &nearr;What specific software solutions does Leo believe can solve the DoD's data siloing and logistical vulnerabilities, and what are the primary barriers to their adoption? &nearr;How does Leo's framework for evaluating defense tech investments change in an environment of heightened geopolitical risk that simultaneously inflates market valuations? &nearr;

Key concepts

Non-Consensus Investing 1 ep Venture Capital 1 ep Defense Technology 2 ep Military Logistics 1 ep Supply Chain Vulnerability 1 ep AI Company Growth & Moats 1 ep SaaS Metrics (T2D3) 1 ep Geopolitics 1 ep Valuations 1 ep Legacy Software Systems 1 ep

Notable quotes

“people talked about the like triple triple double double double thing for a while of getting from a millionaire to 105 years and that seems so antiquated now right like the best companies are doing like one or two years”

Leo · Is Non-Consensus Investing Overrated?

“the endurance or like like how long those companies endure and last and grow feels like much more of a question mark... now it feels like you could hit 100 and then you drop to 50 because someone else came out with a better product”

Leo · Is Non-Consensus Investing Overrated?

“in this age of contested logistics with hypersonic missiles and cyber and space, you know, threats, our ability not just to operate abroad, but just to be able to leave our own ports and to be able to move rail and everything uncontested no longer exists.”

Leo · The Software Crisis Behind America's Infrastructure

“The US Army, Marine Corps, and Air Force all operate on siloed, legacy software systems that were not designed to be interconnected.”

Leo · The Software Crisis Behind America's Infrastructure

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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