The long-term endurance and defensibility of rapidly growing AI companies are highly questionable.
Hype cycles in sectors like humanoid robotics and defense tech are driving valuations to unsustainable levels without corresponding changes in fundamentals.
Startups can fail from 'indigestion' by raising too much capital too easily, particularly the 2021 cohort of Series B companies.
Investing in massive markets like autonomous vehicles is extremely risky when unit economics remain unproven after over $100 billion of industry investment.
Opportunities Identified
Identifying and investing in non-consensus companies at the seed stage before they become 'hot' and achieve massive valuation step-ups.
Securing allocation in mega-outcome companies, where the entry valuation is secondary to the importance of being in the deal.
Investing in AI companies that have demonstrated strong, well-understood unit economics, such as ElevenLabs or Midjourney.
Backing experienced founders with successful exits, who can command high valuations but are often de-risked bets for multi-stage funds.