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MacroVoices #539 Rory Johnston: Hormuz Crisis, is it Really Over?, Sonic AI
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MacroVoices #539 Rory Johnston: Hormuz Crisis, is it Really Over?
Macro Voices
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Jul 2, 2026
•
58:03
Interview
MacroVoices #539 Rory Johnston: Hormuz Crisis, is it Really Over?
From
MacroVoices
Eric Townsend
(Host, MacroVoices)
•
Patrick Serezna
(Host)
•
Massil Beghnan
(Host)
•
Rory Johnston
(Founder, Commodity Context)
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Executive Summary
A 'jailbreak' of oil from the Strait of Hormuz, largely from floating storage drawdowns, has caused WTI crude prices to collapse by nearly 7% week-over-week, erasing the recent geopolitical risk premium.
Despite the surge in supply, the situation remains a tense 'Cold War' standoff, with Iran struggling to control transit flows, leading to intermittent attacks and US retaliation.
A major market divergence is occurring: crude oil is in a spot surplus (contango) due to the supply surge and reduced Chinese buying, while refined products like diesel and gasoline see record-high crack spreads due to refinery bottlenecks and lost Russian exports.
Speculative short positioning in crude oil futures is near record levels, contributing significantly to the price decline and setting the stage for a potential sharp rally if sentiment normalizes.
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Hormuz Crisis and Geopolitical Standoff
Crude Glut vs. Product Scarcity
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Processed Jul 2, 2026
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