Keep pulling the thread on Rory Johnston.
The future control of the Strait of Hormuz will be determined by whether oil flows transit through the northern Iranian-controlled route or the southern and central routes.
WTI crude oil prices fell by 690 basis points week-over-week to $67.26 per barrel as of July 2nd, 2026.
On some days in late June 2026, oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz exceeded 20 million barrels, matching pre-war levels.
The recent surge in oil exports from the Middle East has been augmented by drawing down at least 4 million barrels per day from stranded barrels floating in the Persian Gulf.
Gasoline crack spreads have increased to around $50 per barrel, compared to a normal level of about $20 per barrel.
Due to effective Ukrainian attacks, Russia's refined product exports are at their lowest levels since before the COVID-19 pandemic, while its crude exports are at all-time highs.
On a 10-day trailing average, approximately 12 million barrels per day have been exiting the Strait of Hormuz, while fresh loadings have only been around 5 to 6 million barrels per day.
Iran has demonstrated it can close the Strait of Hormuz, but it has not yet proven it can manage and control the flow of traffic through the strait.
In late June 2026, Iran attacked a freighter, leading to US retaliation that bombed Iranian drone, missile, and radar facilities.
China reduced its crude oil imports by an average of 5 million barrels per day from March to June 2026 compared to the prior three-month average.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases from IEA member states likely peaked around 3.5 to 4 million barrels per day during the Hormuz crisis.
The prompt spread for Brent and Dubai crude futures is in contango, indicating a spot surplus of crude oil in the market.