Keep pulling the thread on Jim Bianco.
The 30-year Treasury note reached a 19-year record high of 5.20% following the July 30th, 2026 FOMC meeting.
The July 30th, 2026 FOMC meeting had 3 dissents in favor of hiking interest rates.
Since the Federal Reserve began its rate cut cycle on September 18th, 2024, the 30-year Treasury yield has increased by 118 basis points from 4.02% to 5.20%.
US inflation has been above the 2% target for 64 consecutive months and is currently above 3%.
The market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September 2026 has been above 50% since June 17th.
The three FOMC members who dissented in favor of a rate hike at the July 2026 meeting were Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed, Lorie Logan of the Dallas Fed, and Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed.
The price of oil is the independent variable driving the Trump administration's policy toward Iran, not the other way around.
President Trump called off airstrikes against Iran when Brent crude approached $100/barrel, but Iran subsequently fired missiles at American bases in Jordan.
21st-century warfare is characterized by the use of cheap, expendable, and iterative unmanned systems like drones, which are deployed in mass quantities.
China could lose a conflict with Taiwan because Taiwan could use cheap drones to make the economic cost of an invasion prohibitively expensive for China.
Artificial intelligence is the most transformative technology of the last 100 years, comparable in impact to the introduction of railroads in the US.
The funding for AI adoption will come from diverting corporate spending away from traditional software products that will be replaced by AI capabilities.