Russia is using diplomacy as a stalling tactic to achieve military gains in Donetsk.
Any potential ceasefire agreement faces a high risk of collapse during implementation due to sequencing disputes and Russia's history as a bad-faith actor.
Russia is successfully adapting its military-industrial complex to scale production of effective ballistic missiles.
Misleading narratives suggesting the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian military are gaining traction in some Western policy circles.
Opportunities Identified
Ukraine is successfully expanding its strike campaign against Russian commercial and military assets, creating a 'full-blown tanker war'.
The defense-tech ecosystem is accelerating the adoption of advanced AI and autonomy software for military applications.
Low oil prices, if sustained, could eventually place significant pressure on the Russian federal budget.