Keep pulling the thread on Dara Massicot & Michael Kofman.
A negotiated ceasefire settlement to the war in Ukraine is predicted to be reached later in 2026.
Russia has sufficient revenue to continue its war effort in Ukraine for at least another year.
Russia's interpretation of "security guarantees" for Ukraine involves a concert of powers, including Russia itself, with the ability to veto any military intervention, as proposed during talks in Istanbul.
Ukraine has expanded its strike campaign against Russia into a "full-blown tanker war," targeting Russian commercial vessels in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean to affect Russia's income.
Russia's Reshnyk ballistic missile is set to go into serial production, with new buildings being added to ballistic missile component factories to support a large increase in output.
The Russian military has expanded from approximately 150,000 personnel to 1.2 million over the past several years.
Senator Marco Rubio stated that a diplomatic deal to end the war in Ukraine might not happen by Christmas and could take several months or longer.
Russia is expected to demand the lifting of sanctions and the restoration of diplomatic and economic ties as part of any negotiated settlement in Ukraine.
The United States is developing a consensus negotiating position with its European allies and Ukraine that Russia will likely reject.
Russia is using diplomatic talks as a stalling tactic to continue making incremental military gains in Donetsk.
A major challenge in implementing a ceasefire in Ukraine will be disagreements over the sequencing of actions, similar to the failure of the Minsk agreements.
The remaining Ukrainian-held territory in Donetsk contains a politically and militarily important, extensive network of defensive positions known as a fortress belt.