Keep pulling the thread on J.P. Morgan.
J.P. Morgan expects that persistent sticky inflation will prevent most central banks from validating market expectations for significant interest rate declines in 2026.
J.P. Morgan predicts that inflation in Western Europe will fall to its target level in 2026, while inflation in the United States will remain sticky at close to 3%.
J.P. Morgan forecasts that global equities will offer a 10% to 25% upside in 2026, outperforming other assets like cash and bonds.
J.P. Morgan expects the US Federal Reserve to remain dovish through the first half of 2026 due to slowing wage growth and services inflation.
Almost half of the S&P 500's market weight is related to Artificial Intelligence.
Rapid AI-related capital expenditures are expected to continue, driven by a competitive "race" between the US and China and a "winner-takes-all" mentality among US companies.
J.P. Morgan predicts the Bank of Japan will be the only developed market central bank to tighten monetary policy in 2026, raising its policy rate to 1% by year-end.
J.P. Morgan forecasts the 10-year German bund yield at 2.75%, the 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.35%, and the 10-year UK gilt yield at 4.75% by the end of 2026.
J.P. Morgan forecasts a bearish outlook for oil, with Brent crude prices expected to fall to $58 per barrel in 2026 and $57 in 2027.
Global oil supply is expanding at three times the rate of demand in both 2025 and 2026, driven by growth in the global offshore and shale sectors.
J.P. Morgan maintains a bullish recommendation on gold for the fourth consecutive year, with a price target of $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026.
J.P. Morgan assigns a 35% probability to a recessionary scenario in 2026 if weak labor demand persists and payrolls disappoint.