The conflict is defined not by rapid maneuvers but by a grinding contest to exhaust the opponent's military, economy, and societal will. The analysis emphasizes cycles of attrition and reconstitution, where tactical gains are incremental and costly for both sides.
Drones have become central to the tactical battlefield, creating a constant technological arms race. The advantage in the 'drone engagement zone' dictates initiative on the ground, and both sides are rapidly expanding production and innovation, from FPV strike drones to interceptor drones.
Vladimir Putin's core bet that sustained military pressure would cause the Ukrainian military to collapse has failed. Russia is now spending ~40% of its budget on a war that has produced only incremental gains, while its casualty rates are beginning to match recruitment, threatening its ability to expand its forces.
The Trump administration is actively trying to reduce the U.S. commitment to the war and shift the primary security burden for Europe onto European nations themselves. However, the analysis makes clear that Europe currently lacks the capacity to replace the unique and critical military support provided by the U.S.
Keep pulling the thread on Michael Kofman.