Foreign Affairs Interview• Feb 21, 2026• 1:00:51Interview

Michael Kofman: Is There an Endgame in Ukraine? | Foreign Affairs Interview

From Foreign Affairs Interview

Michael Kofman•Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Executive Summary

The Russia-Ukraine war has settled into a brutal, long-term war of attrition, where tactical battlefield dynamics, particularly in drone warfare, are constantly evolving, but neither side can achieve a strategic breakthrough.
Despite retaining advantages in manpower and materiel, Russia's 2025 campaign was not successful; it failed to achieve key objectives, its advance slowed, and it faces unsustainable casualty rates and growing economic strain.
Ukraine faces critical challenges with manpower shortages, force generation, and vulnerability to Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure, but has compensated with tactical innovation and superior force quality.
The Trump administration's policy to end the war quickly and shift the security burden to Europe is hampered by a lack of leverage over Russia and the reality that European allies are not prepared to fill the security void left by the U.S.

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Concerns Raised

Ukraine's critical and ongoing manpower shortages.
The effectiveness of Russia's escalating strike campaign against Ukrainian energy and defense-industrial infrastructure.
The current inability of European nations to take over the security burden from the United States.
The potential for external shocks or other global conflicts to divert U.S. attention and resources from Ukraine.

Opportunities Identified

Exploiting Russia's growing economic strain and unsustainable casualty rates, which are limiting its ability to expand its forces.
Ukraine's expansion of an unrestricted warfare campaign against Russia's vulnerable 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers to crimp state revenue.
Disrupting Russian command and control and drone operations by restricting their access to technologies like Starlink.
Leveraging Ukraine's qualitative and technological advantages to offset Russia's quantitative superiority on the battlefield.

Key Themes

The Nature of Modern Attritional Warfare

The conflict is defined not by rapid maneuvers but by a grinding contest to exhaust the opponent's military, economy, and societal will. The analysis emphasizes cycles of attrition and reconstitution, where tactical gains are incremental and costly for both sides.

This dynamic reframes the metrics of success away from territorial control and towards sustainability, making long-term industrial capacity, manpower generation, and economic resilience the decisive factors.

The Drone Warfare Revolution

Drones have become central to the tactical battlefield, creating a constant technological arms race. The advantage in the 'drone engagement zone' dictates initiative on the ground, and both sides are rapidly expanding production and innovation, from FPV strike drones to interceptor drones.

The war serves as a live laboratory for 21st-century conflict, demonstrating how unmanned systems can offset traditional military advantages and forcing a fundamental rethink of combined arms operations.

Russia's Strategic Miscalculation and Mounting Costs

Vladimir Putin's core bet that sustained military pressure would cause the Ukrainian military to collapse has failed. Russia is now spending ~40% of its budget on a war that has produced only incremental gains, while its casualty rates are beginning to match recruitment, threatening its ability to expand its forces.

Russia's struggles highlight its underlying economic and demographic vulnerabilities, suggesting that its ability to sustain high-intensity operations is finite and that time may not be on Moscow's side.

US Policy Shift and European Burden-Sharing

The Trump administration is actively trying to reduce the U.S. commitment to the war and shift the primary security burden for Europe onto European nations themselves. However, the analysis makes clear that Europe currently lacks the capacity to replace the unique and critical military support provided by the U.S.

This policy creates significant strategic uncertainty for Ukraine and NATO, highlighting a critical capabilities gap that could be exploited by Russia if the U.S. withdraws support prematurely.

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Topics

Russia-Ukraine War Attrition Warfare Drone Warfare Military Strategy Geopolitics US Foreign Policy Trump Administration European Security NATO Manpower Shortages Economic Sanctions Energy Infrastructure Air Defense Starlink Shadow Fleet

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