Keep pulling the thread on Michael Kofman.
Vladimir Putin wanted to invade Ukraine from the outset of negotiations in 2021 and issued ultimatums to that effect.
The Ukrainian military is struggling with shortages of both manpower and munitions.
In the fall and winter of 2025, Russia's irrecoverable casualty rate began to match its recruitment rate, preventing further expansion of its forces.
A key bet by Vladimir Putin that sustained military pressure would cause the Ukrainian military to collapse has not succeeded.
The Trump administration has sanctioned Russian energy companies.
Throughout 2025, Russia's military leadership misreported its battlefield performance to the political leadership, claiming the war was going better than it actually was.
The Trump administration's primary policy regarding the Russia-Ukraine war is to end the conflict as soon as possible.
The Trump administration's policy towards Ukraine is part of a broader European strategy to shift the burden of continental security to European nations.
The United States is the sole provider of certain air defense interceptors, precision strike munitions, and maintenance support for systems it has supplied to Ukraine.
Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi claimed that Ukraine's political leadership forced him to split his forces three ways during the summer 2023 offensive, against his preference to concentrate them on a single axis.
Russia's economy is negatively affected by low oil prices, forcing it to sell oil at significant discounts to countries like China.
Russia is spending approximately 40% of its government budget, equivalent to about 8% of its GDP, on the war in Ukraine.