Keep pulling the thread on Martin Tengler.
Martin Tengler predicts the European Union will fail to achieve even 10% of its 20 million ton clean hydrogen target for 2030.
Globally, 230 million tons of annual clean hydrogen production capacity has been announced, but only 0.8 million tons, or 0.3%, is currently operational.
The volume of stalled or canceled clean hydrogen projects is now approximately three times larger than the capacity that has been committed, is under construction, or is operational.
Bloomberg NEF forecasts that 4.9 million tons of annual green and blue hydrogen production capacity will be online by 2030, a downward revision from a previous forecast of 5.5 million tons.
ExxonMobil has suspended a blue hydrogen project that was expected to produce nearly 1 million tons annually starting in 2030.
The Trump administration has made it more difficult for companies to claim green hydrogen tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act by moving up the application deadline.
Even with a $3 per kilogram production tax credit, green hydrogen in the United States is not cost-competitive with gray hydrogen due to a lack of demand-side incentives.
Bloomberg NEF forecasts the United States will be the largest clean hydrogen market by 2030, with approximately 1.2 million tons of capacity, consisting mostly of blue hydrogen.
China has included hydrogen as one of seven key technologies in its 15th Five-Year Plan, signaling increased state-level support for the sector.
Martin Tengler of Bloomberg NEF believes the hydrogen market is at or near the bottom of a "trough of disillusionment" following a period of intense hype.
Martin Tengler of Bloomberg NEF asserts that achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is not realistic for most regions.
The European Union has a target to use 20 million tons of clean hydrogen by 2030, with 10 million tons produced domestically and 10 million tons imported.