Keep pulling the thread on Kris Mikkelsen.
Current multifamily construction starts are 55-60% below peak levels and 20-25% below the average levels seen from 2015 to 2019.
Kris Mikkelsen predicts that 2026 will be a recovery year for multifamily real estate, with material fundamental improvements beginning in 2027 due to a lack of new inventory.
A proposed Senate bill, which passed with a 91-9 vote, would require institutional investors in single-family rentals to dispose of their assets after seven years.
Ivy Zelman believes the proposed legislation requiring institutional investors to sell single-family rental assets after seven years could reduce property valuations by as much as a third.
Large production home builders have successfully negotiated with vendors, resulting in input costs declining by low single-digit percentages, a reversal from the typical long-term normalized increase of 3-4%.
The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index registered a preliminary reading of 55.3, which is 35% below its long-term average from the mid-1980s.
Ivy Zelman identifies Texas as the most challenging and overbuilt housing market, referring to it as the "canary in the coal mine."
The housing markets in the Carolinas and the Midwest are currently outperforming other regions and are considered "shining stars."
Trailing 12-month multifamily absorption peaked mid-year 2024 at approximately 785,000 units before decelerating to the mid-to-upper 300,000 unit range by year-end.
The proposed legislation on single-family rentals is expected to negatively impact valuations most in highly concentrated markets such as Phoenix, Dallas, and Atlanta.
According to a recent survey, the percentage of real estate market participants who believe now is a good time to sell is at a 15-year low of 4%.
The percentage of real estate survey respondents who believe now is a good time to build has doubled over the last 12 months, from the mid-teens to the upper 20s.