Keep pulling the thread on Lyn Alden.
The ability for citizens in authoritarian countries to save in non-local currencies via crypto will disrupt the power of governments that rely on seigniorage and devaluing local currency.
The US dollar's status as the global reserve currency gives it a "monetary premium," making it overvalued relative to its utility value.
Global demand for US dollars is primarily met through structural US trade deficits, which export dollars to countries like China, Switzerland, Germany, Singapore, and Japan.
The US dollar's reserve status has led to structural trade deficits, contributing to deindustrialization and political polarization within the United States.
The net international investment position of the United States is approximately negative 70% of GDP, the most negative of any large country.
Since 2009, foreign central banks have been increasing their gold holdings, and since approximately 2013, their accumulation of US Treasuries has flatlined.
China has shifted its investment strategy from buying US Treasuries to funding commodity deposits and port infrastructure through its Belt and Road Initiative.
The freezing of Russian central bank reserves by the US and Europe has accelerated the development of non-dollar payment systems and bilateral trade agreements among other nations.
The United States is predicted to experience higher-than-expected inflation for the current decade due to its high debt-to-GDP ratio.
In the current high-debt environment (130% debt-to-GDP), raising interest rates risks increasing money supply growth more through higher deficit interest expenses than it reduces it through slower bank lending.
The United States is mathematically in a "fiscal spiral" where deficits are large and raising interest rates makes them worse.
The US is not at risk of a nominal default on its debt because it can print money, but it faces consequences like structural currency issues similar to emerging markets.