The Stalemate Summit: Xi-Trump in the Long Sweep of US-China Relations
From China Talk
Jordan(Host, China Talk)•Julian Gewirtz(Guest)•Julian Gertz(Guest, Former Biden Administration China Official, Columbia University)
Executive Summary
10 quotes
Concerns Raised
U.S. political polarization is crippling its ability to mount a sustained, long-term strategy against China.
President Trump's transactional and unpredictable nature in high-stakes diplomacy could lead to him conceding critical U.S. interests, particularly regarding Taiwan.
China is using the period of de-escalation to strengthen its position, while the U.S. is squandering it through foreign policy distractions (war in Iran) and domestic infighting.
Beijing's belief in U.S. decline could lead to strategic overreach and miscalculation.
Opportunities Identified
A period of de-escalation could be used by the U.S. to shore up domestic strengths and international alliances, even if the current administration is failing to do so.
Direct leader-to-leader meetings, despite their risks, provide crucial 'data points' that can challenge or inform the potentially skewed perceptions of the Chinese leadership.