What are the top operators and investors saying about the real asset market in 2026?

Operators and investors anticipate 2026 will be a "sorting year" for commercial real estate, characterized by a widening performance gap between high-quality, financeable properties and distressed assets [3, 9, 27]. The market is expected to continue a theme of "measured momentum" rather than experiencing an extreme downturn or boom [19, 23]. A key dynamic will be the activity of private debt funds, which are forecast to aggressively pursue **"loan-to-own" strategies** on troubled properties, creating both a threat to existing owners and an opportunity for specialized investors [2, 11, 25]. This bifurcation will also be reflected in lender behavior; while banks are expected to re-enter the market and compete for prime assets , their overall lending growth will remain modest at around 2.5-3% . Delinquencies are projected to move sideways, remaining range-bound near 7.3% as resolutions and new issuance offset new maturity defaults .

Despite underlying stress, capital markets are expected to provide significant liquidity, primarily to address the immense refinancing challenge posed by **over $1 trillion** in commercial real estate loans scheduled to mature by the end of 2026 [10, 16]. Analysts forecast a third consecutive year of robust Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) issuance, with predictions ranging from $130 billion to as high as $140 billion [3, 14, 22, 30]. This strong issuance indicates that capital is available and must be deployed, creating a functional, albeit selective, refinancing market . Lenders are showing a continued preference for shorter-term five-year debt over ten-year instruments . This available capital, however, will be highly selective, reinforcing the division between desirable and undesirable assets [23, 27].

The residential housing market is concurrently entering what some analysts term the "great housing reset," a period defined by a long, slow improvement in affordability and market normalization for both buyers and sellers [28, 29]. The strongest housing markets in 2026 are expected to be in the suburbs of New York City and various metropolitan areas in the Midwest . This real estate activity is set against a fragile macroeconomic backdrop, with some prominent investors viewing a significant public market event not as a tail risk but as a base case scenario . Several analysts anticipate a profit-taking correction on the order of **10 to 15%** in public equities [12, 15]. This outlook is compounded by expectations of persistent, sticky inflation in the US, which will limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates and keep borrowing costs relatively high .

This environment of public market fragility and high valuations is driving sophisticated investors to de-risk portfolios and diversify into non-correlated real and alternative assets [1, 18]. Stanley Druckenmiller highlights sustained, large-scale gold purchases by central banks as a significant statement on the future of the monetary system . Forecasts for other commodities are divergent, reflecting broader uncertainty. JP Morgan analysts are highly bullish on uranium, issuing a price target of **$5,000** by the end of 2026 , while simultaneously projecting a downward step in Brent crude oil to around $58 per barrel . More speculative strategies are also emerging, such as Scott Galloway's prediction that a potential regime change could make Venezuelan assets the best-performing investment over the next three to five years .