What are experts saying about the health of the consumer into 2026, and which consumer and commerce categories are showing the strongest versus weakest demand signals?

Analysts project a bifurcated consumer landscape for 2026, with overall retail sector growth masking underlying financial strain for certain demographics. While the U.S. retail industry is forecasted to grow **4.4% in 2026** after reaching record sales in 2025, this resilience is not universal [2, 17]. A persistent focus on value, driven by cumulative inflation and affordability concerns, is expected to continue, particularly for lower-income households whose financial health is not expected to improve significantly [4, 22, 28]. This has created a "K-shaped" economy, benefiting discounters like Five Below and Walmart while creating headwinds for mid-tier brands [1, 4]. The trend toward value-seeking is broad, with one report noting that half of global consumers, including **35% of high-income earners**, now identify as "value seekers" . Some analysts interpret signs of weakness at major retailers like Target and Lululemon as evidence that the average consumer is struggling financially .

A major disruptive force reshaping commerce is the rapid adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, which is causing a significant reallocation of consumer spending [1, 5]. The percentage of U.S. households with at least one GLP-1 user was projected to more than double over the course of 2025, reaching **20% by December** . This "physiological disruption" presents a direct headwind for the food and beverage industries, as users reduce spending on food and alcohol [3, 5]. In turn, this spending is being redirected, creating strong demand signals for wellness, fitness, and experience-oriented categories . Specifically, consumers using these drugs are increasing purchases of gym memberships, travel, active vacations, athleisure, and smaller-sized clothing, while buying fewer accessories [6, 10].

Beyond the GLP-1 effect, the strongest demand signals are concentrated in experiences and value-driven niche categories. The experience economy remains robust, with travel ranked as the number one discretionary spending category consumers are most excited about for 2026 [13, 23]. Off-premise dining has also surged, now accounting for **35% of sales** in full-service restaurants, driven by younger generations' demand for convenience . Consumers are also "shopping with intention," using purchases for self-expression, which is fueling growth in the secondhand market and sports-related apparel, the latter boosted by the 2026 Winter Olympics and World Cup [24, 25, 26, 30]. The weakest categories are traditional food and beverage companies impacted by GLP-1 adoption and mid-tier apparel brands squeezed by the consumer's focus on value [1, 3, 4].

Technology and supply chain shifts form a critical backdrop to these consumer trends. Experts widely predict that 2026 will be the year for **widespread AI monetization** in retail, moving from infrastructure investment to practical applications in customer service, operational efficiency, and personalized engagement [1, 8, 14, 19, 20]. This AI "arms race" continues to fuel outperformance in the semiconductor sector [1, 11]. Concurrently, geopolitical tensions are accelerating supply chain diversification, with reliance on China decreasing as companies increase sourcing from Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Canada .