A second Trump administration is executing an assertive 'Latin America first' policy, guided by a 'Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine' designed to counter extra-hemispheric influence, especially from China.
The U.S. successfully used a massive naval buildup and quarantine in the Caribbean as a tool of coercive diplomacy to facilitate the removal of the Maduro regime.
On January 3rd, 2026, the U.S. military conducted a complex special operations raid to capture Nicolas Maduro and bring him to the U.S. to stand trial on drug trafficking charges.
Control over Venezuela's oil exports is a primary instrument of U.S. geopolitical leverage, used specifically to influence China's behavior and ensure the compliance of a post-Maduro Venezuelan government.
China, while unwilling to directly prop up the Maduro regime with security support, remains a key strategic competitor that will likely work to undermine U.S. objectives in Venezuela and the broader region.
August 2025
Berg states the Trump administration began one of the largest naval buildups ever seen in the Southern Caribbean, deploying a significant portion of the U.S. Navy to the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility.
Late 2025
The U.S. naval force enacted a quarantine on 'ghost fleet' tankers transporting sanctioned Venezuelan oil, primarily to China, as part of a pressure campaign against the Maduro regime.
January 2-3, 2026
Berg describes a U.S. military operation, involving Delta Force, Cyber Comm, and Space Comm, to capture Nicolas Maduro and his wife from a bunker complex at Fort Teyuna.
Early 2026
Following Maduro's capture, Berg notes that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined a three-phase plan for Venezuela's future, focusing on stabilization, recovery, and elections.
End of 2026
Berg predicts that as a result of the U.S. intervention, Venezuela will successfully hold free and fair elections, resolving its long-standing issues of political legitimacy and stability.
▶U.S. Interventionism in VenezuelaApr 2026
Berg details a multi-faceted and direct U.S. intervention to remove the Maduro regime, combining a massive naval buildup, a quarantine on oil shipments, and a special forces operation to capture Nicolas Maduro. This is followed by a U.S.-led three-phase plan for the country's economic and political reconstruction.
This theme suggests a U.S. foreign policy shift towards overt, unilateral intervention to achieve regime change in the Western Hemisphere, signaling high political and operational risk for entities aligned with adversarial states in the region.
▶The 'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe DoctrineApr 2026
Berg identifies a new guiding principle for U.S. policy in Latin America, which he terms the 'Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.' This 21st-century doctrine is focused on actively countering the influence of extra-hemispheric rivals, particularly China, by preventing their ownership of strategic assets in the Americas.
Investors should anticipate increased U.S. scrutiny and potential intervention in foreign investments within Latin America, especially in sectors like ports, energy, and technology, creating significant regulatory risk for non-U.S. companies.
▶Sino-American Strategic Competition in Latin AmericaApr 2026
Berg portrays Latin America as a primary arena for U.S.-China competition. The U.S. is depicted as actively working to diminish Chinese influence by leveraging control over Venezuelan oil, competing over major infrastructure projects like the Chancay port, and blocking Chinese-related acquisitions.
The analysis indicates that geopolitical alignment will increasingly drive economic outcomes in Latin America, forcing regional governments and multinational corporations to navigate the competing interests of Washington and Beijing.
▶Energy as a Geopolitical WeaponApr 2026
According to Berg, the Trump administration's strategy hinges on controlling Venezuela's oil sector. By imposing a naval quarantine and seizing control of oil marketing, the U.S. aims to exert powerful leverage over China, a primary importer, and to ensure the policy compliance of a future Venezuelan government.
This highlights the weaponization of energy resources as a primary tool of U.S. foreign policy, suggesting that control over energy flows can be as impactful as direct military force in shaping regional politics and international relations.