Ryan Berg

Geopolitics expert at CSIS specializing in U.S. foreign policy in Latin America.

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Key positions and views

A second Trump administration is executing an assertive 'Latin America first' policy, guided by a 'Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine' designed to counter extra-hemispheric influence, especially from China.

The U.S. successfully used a massive naval buildup and quarantine in the Caribbean as a tool of coercive diplomacy to facilitate the removal of the Maduro regime.

On January 3rd, 2026, the U.S. military conducted a complex special operations raid to capture Nicolas Maduro and bring him to the U.S. to stand trial on drug trafficking charges.

Control over Venezuela's oil exports is a primary instrument of U.S. geopolitical leverage, used specifically to influence China's behavior and ensure the compliance of a post-Maduro Venezuelan government.

China, while unwilling to directly prop up the Maduro regime with security support, remains a key strategic competitor that will likely work to undermine U.S. objectives in Venezuela and the broader region.

Podcast consensus on Berg

Points of consensus

▶Both sources describe a massive U.S. naval buildup in the Southern Caribbean starting in August 2025 as a core component of the Trump administration's strategy.Apr 2026

▶The concept of a 'Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine' is presented in both sources as the guiding principle for the administration's assertive policy in Latin America.Apr 2026

▶Both sources detail a U.S. military operation in early January 2026 to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and transport him to the U.S. to face trial.Apr 2026

▶The Trump administration's heightened focus on Latin America is a consistent point, highlighted by the naval presence and the detailed treatment in the national security strategy.Apr 2026

Points of debate

▶Berg highlights the geopolitical tension surrounding China's role, noting that while Beijing refused to provide security support to Maduro, it is expected to actively frustrate U.S. plans for a post-Maduro Venezuela.Apr 2026

▶A key point of conflict is the strategic competition over critical infrastructure, with Berg citing the U.S. countering China's influence over assets like the Chancay port in Peru and the blocked acquisition of Hutchison ports in Panama.Apr 2026

▶Berg's analysis presents the contested use of a U.S. naval quarantine not just to stop illicit oil shipments but also to enforce pro-U.S. policies on a future Venezuelan government, creating a potential point of international friction.Apr 2026

▶The narrative describes a complex dynamic where the U.S. uses control over Venezuelan oil as leverage against China, allowing shipments to continue but only at full market price, turning a sanctioned commodity into a tool of statecraft.Apr 2026

Key themes

▶U.S. Interventionism in VenezuelaApr 2026

Berg details a multi-faceted and direct U.S. intervention to remove the Maduro regime, combining a massive naval buildup, a quarantine on oil shipments, and a special forces operation to capture Nicolas Maduro. This is followed by a U.S.-led three-phase plan for the country's economic and political reconstruction.

This theme suggests a U.S. foreign policy shift towards overt, unilateral intervention to achieve regime change in the Western Hemisphere, signaling high political and operational risk for entities aligned with adversarial states in the region.

▶The 'Trump Corollary' to the Monroe DoctrineApr 2026

Berg identifies a new guiding principle for U.S. policy in Latin America, which he terms the 'Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.' This 21st-century doctrine is focused on actively countering the influence of extra-hemispheric rivals, particularly China, by preventing their ownership of strategic assets in the Americas.

Investors should anticipate increased U.S. scrutiny and potential intervention in foreign investments within Latin America, especially in sectors like ports, energy, and technology, creating significant regulatory risk for non-U.S. companies.

▶Sino-American Strategic Competition in Latin America

Berg portrays Latin America as a primary arena for U.S.-China competition. The U.S. is depicted as actively working to diminish Chinese influence by leveraging control over Venezuelan oil, competing over major infrastructure projects like the Chancay port, and blocking Chinese-related acquisitions.

The analysis indicates that geopolitical alignment will increasingly drive economic outcomes in Latin America, forcing regional governments and multinational corporations to navigate the competing interests of Washington and Beijing.

▶Energy as a Geopolitical WeaponApr 2026

According to Berg, the Trump administration's strategy hinges on controlling Venezuela's oil sector. By imposing a naval quarantine and seizing control of oil marketing, the U.S. aims to exert powerful leverage over China, a primary importer, and to ensure the policy compliance of a future Venezuelan government.

This highlights the weaponization of energy resources as a primary tool of U.S. foreign policy, suggesting that control over energy flows can be as impactful as direct military force in shaping regional politics and international relations.

Source episodes

Sentiment over time

Not enough data for timeline

Changes over time

August 2025

Berg states the Trump administration began one of the largest naval buildups ever seen in the Southern Caribbean, deploying a significant portion of the U.S. Navy to the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility.

Late 2025

The U.S. naval force enacted a quarantine on 'ghost fleet' tankers transporting sanctioned Venezuelan oil, primarily to China, as part of a pressure campaign against the Maduro regime.

January 2-3, 2026

Berg describes a U.S. military operation, involving Delta Force, Cyber Comm, and Space Comm, to capture Nicolas Maduro and his wife from a bunker complex at Fort Teyuna.

Early 2026

Following Maduro's capture, Berg notes that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined a three-phase plan for Venezuela's future, focusing on stabilization, recovery, and elections.

End of 2026

Berg predicts that as a result of the U.S. intervention, Venezuela will successfully hold free and fair elections, resolving its long-standing issues of political legitimacy and stability.

Suggested prompts

How does Ryan Berg's concept of a 'Trump Corollary' differ from historical interpretations of the Monroe Doctrine, particularly regarding economic versus military intervention? &nearr;What are the potential second-order effects and international legal precedents of the U.S. military operation to capture a foreign head of state as described by Berg? &nearr;Based on Berg's analysis, what specific non-military actions might China take to 'frustrate' the U.S.'s three-phase plan for Venezuela? &nearr;How viable is the U.S. strategy of exclusively marketing Venezuelan oil, and what challenges might it face from international markets and other oil-producing nations? &nearr;

Key concepts

Venezuela 2 ep Trump Administration Foreign Policy 2 ep China 2 ep U.S. Military Operations 2 ep Monroe Doctrine / Trump Corollary 2 ep Naval Quarantine 2 ep Venezuelan Oil 2 ep Nicolas Maduro 2 ep Geopolitical Leverage 2 ep

Notable quotes

“there was a, the lead of that section talked about a Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, And this, of course, set off a lot of debate within Washington about whether this was mere bluster or whether this was actual doctrine that would guide the administration's strategy. It seems to me that it's doctrine that's actually guiding the administration's strategy.”

Ryan Berg · What are CSIS experts' boldest geopolitical predictions in 2026?

“the United States conducted an incredible operation in the early morning hours of January 3rd to capture Nicolas Maduro and whisk him away to the United States to stand trial for the indictment stemming back to 2020 on drug trafficking charges.”

Ryan Berg · What are CSIS experts' boldest geopolitical predictions in 2026?

“The United States intends to use its naval quarantine of Venezuela to ensure the interim authorities pursue pro-U.S. policies and reduce relationships with China, Russia, and Iran.”

Ryan Berg · Operation Absolute Resolve and China’s Takeaways: A Conversation with Ryan Berg and Evan Ellis

“The Trump administration views its control over the approximately 700,000 barrels of oil per day that China typically imports from Venezuela as a key source of geopolitical leverage.”

Ryan Berg · Operation Absolute Resolve and China’s Takeaways: A Conversation with Ryan Berg and Evan Ellis

Report last updated: Apr 21, 2026

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